Game plan

Luca Nardi v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Every number combines what Luca Nardi does well with what Juan Carlos Prado Angelo allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Luca Nardi wins, best of 3 30%90%: 7%–66% · best of 5: 25%

Serve points won 58.9% / 63.1% Luca / Juan · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 30%serve 58.9% / 63.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Luca Nardi's record against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Luca	Juan
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.12 better than 59%	−0.03 ±0.13 better than 48%
Shot selection	−0.20 ±0.39 better than 30%	+0.49 ±0.18 better than 92%
Execution	−1.30 ±1.09 better than 16%	−1.24 ±0.54 better than 17%
Points left on the table	2.26 ±0.25 lower than 87%	2.38 ±0.15 lower than 75%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Luca Nardi serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Luca wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	69%	70%	65.8%±10.6	59% ▲
Body	16%	63%	64%	63.5%±16.8	12% ▼
T	38%	71%	67%	62.8%±10.9	29% ▼

Optimal v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Luca wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	73%	65%	65.0%±10.1	50%
Body	14%	54%	66%	57.8%±18.2	0% ▼
T	37%	69%	69%	65.6%±11.2	50% ▲

Optimal v Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Luca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	27%	69%	78%	75.5%±10.2	40% ▲
Body	2%	65%	65%	66.0%±16.2	0% ▼
T	71%	64%	76%	65.9%±10.5	60% ▼

Optimal v Luca Nardi: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Luca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	67%	77%	71.9%±10.1	67% ▲
Body	1%	65%	72%	73.5%±15.4	0%
T	45%	63%	77%	69.6%±11.6	33% ▼

Optimal v Luca Nardi: +0.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Luca Nardi returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	37%	+4.3	−1.1	+2.8	+6.0±3.1
FH slice through the middle	24%	−4.2	−3.0	±0.0	−7.2±1.6
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−1.8	+2.2	+2.1±3.9
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	−3.8	+1.8	+3.6±3.8
FH slice down the line	6%	−4.3	−2.0	±0.0	−6.2±1.5

Lean FH through the middle: +5.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (109 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH crosscourt	42%	+8.8	−3.8	+3.4	+8.4±3.6
BH through the middle	36%	+6.4	+0.5	+3.6	+10.4±2.8
BH slice crosscourt	10%	+0.5	−0.5	±0.0	+0.1±1.7
BH slice down the line	6%	−8.4	−0.6	+0.6	−8.4±2.1
BH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−0.7	+0.4	−4.5±1.5

Lean BH through the middle: +3.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (107 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH crosscourt	59%	+1.0	−1.0	+1.1	+1.1±3.3
BH through the middle	41%	−2.9	±0.0	−1.0	−3.9±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (61 returns charted)

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Luca	Value
FH through the middle	60%	+4.3	+2.8	−1.0	+6.1±3.0
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+3.1	−2.0	+6.7±4.3
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	+2.4	−2.3	+1.8±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Luca	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.4	+2.8	+1.2	+10.4±2.8
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	+3.1	−0.6	+11.3±3.6
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.7	+0.7	+8.6±4.2
BH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.8	−3.2±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (185 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Luca	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	+0.7	−0.3	−2.5±2.6
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.0	−2.2	+1.7	+0.5±3.3
FH through the middle	16%	−2.9	−0.4	+1.4	−1.9±2.3
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−2.2	−1.0	−3.4±4.3
FH inside-out	8%	+1.0	−1.8	−1.4	−2.2±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (141 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Luca Nardi

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+4.0±2.5	+0.7	+3.3
BH to the middle · rally	+2.3±2.1	+0.8	+1.5
BH to the middle · return	+1.8±2.6	−0.9	+2.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.4±3.2	−0.8	+2.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.4±3.7	+1.3	−0.9
FH to the middle · return	−0.4±2.9	−1.6	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.7±4.1	−3.2	−0.5
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.1±2.4	−2.6	+0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.1±3.1	−2.0	+0.9
BH to their backhand · return	−0.7±3.3	−3.8	+3.1
FH to the middle · return	−0.4±2.9	−1.6	+1.2

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+4.1±2.5	+3.2	+0.8
BH to their backhand · return	+3.2±3.3	+2.3	+0.9
BH to the middle · rally	+2.7±2.2	+2.5	+0.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.5±4.2	−1.0	+3.5
FH to the middle · return	+2.1±2.8	+1.5	+0.6
FH to the middle · rally	+1.5±2.4	+2.0	−0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.8±3.1	−1.1	−0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.3±2.4	−1.0	−0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.7±3.1	−0.9	+0.1
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.1±3.5	−0.7	+0.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.2±3.8	−1.3	+1.5

Against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo-like opponents

Luca Nardi v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.1%	29.7%