Game plan

Maja Chwalinska v Claire Liu

Every number combines what Maja Chwalinska does well with what Claire Liu allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Maja Chwalinska wins, best of 3 79%90%: 42%–96% · best of 5: 84%

Serve points won 56.6% / 50.5% Maja / Claire · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 79%serve 56.6% / 50.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Maja Chwalinska's record against Claire Liu's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Maja Chwalinska serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Maja wins	v Claire	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	26%	62%	67%	62.8%±11.2	41% ▲
Body	28%	55%	65%	63.2%±13.0	13% ▼
T	46%	65%	67%	63.8%±12.0	46%

Optimal v Claire Liu: +0.5±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Maja wins	v Claire	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	60%	72%	67.1%±10.8	60% ▲
Body	22%	53%	49%	45.0%±14.8	7% ▼
T	26%	67%	60%	63.1%±12.0	33% ▲

Optimal v Claire Liu: +0.8±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Claire Liu serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Claire wins	v Maja	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	63%	58%	54.3%±11.0	50% ▲
Body	20%	56%	57%	54.9%±13.6	5% ▼
T	38%	65%	62%	58.5%±12.5	45% ▲

Optimal v Maja Chwalinska: +0.1±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Claire wins	v Maja	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	63%	59%	56.0%±12.4	46% ▼
Body	10%	47%	53%	43.9%±14.9	0% ▼
T	39%	67%	58%	60.6%±11.4	54% ▲

Optimal v Maja Chwalinska: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Maja Chwalinska returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claire	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+3.2	+0.6	+8.0±3.2
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.3	+3.3	+0.9	+9.5±3.9
FH slice through the middle	17%	−6.7	+1.6	+0.7	−4.4±2.1
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	+1.1	+1.0	+3.6±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−6.6	+1.5	±0.0	−5.2±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (111 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claire	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.0	+1.2	+1.0	+8.1±2.9
BH crosscourt	33%	+7.7	+2.4	−1.4	+8.8±3.2
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	+3.6	+0.2	+5.9±4.6
BH slice through the middle	3%	−6.2	−0.5	−0.2	−7.0±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	+0.1	±0.0	−4.1±1.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.1±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (236 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claire	Value
BH through the middle	31%	−2.6	+1.6	−0.2	−1.3±2.6
BH crosscourt	29%	+1.5	±0.0	+2.0	+3.5±3.2
FH through the middle	18%	−2.7	−1.1	−1.4	−5.2±2.4
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	−1.3	+2.7	+0.8±4.4
FH inside-in	5%	+0.7	+0.5	+0.5	+1.7±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (110 returns charted)

Claire Liu returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maja	Value
FH through the middle	64%	+4.2	+0.5	+0.2	+4.9±3.1
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.3	−0.8	+2.7	+7.2±4.3
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	+0.7	+3.2	+5.4±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.7±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (116 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maja	Value
BH crosscourt	44%	+7.7	+1.6	+1.3	+10.6±3.6
BH through the middle	38%	+6.0	+1.5	+2.1	+9.6±2.6
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−1.3	+2.7	+3.6±3.9
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	+0.3	+0.6	−5.4±1.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (61 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Maja Chwalinska

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.4±3.3	+3.6	+1.8
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.1±3.4	+3.6	+1.5
BH to the middle · return	+4.5±2.7	+3.3	+1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.5±3.6	+0.8	+2.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.4±4.3	+1.6	+0.8
FH to the middle · return	+1.5±2.9	+1.8	−0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+1.5±2.9	+1.8	−0.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.4±4.3	+1.6	+0.8
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.5±3.6	+0.8	+2.7
BH to the middle · return	+4.5±2.7	+3.3	+1.2
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.1±3.4	+3.6	+1.5

Claire Liu

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+0.7±2.9	+0.8	−0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.0±3.4	+0.4	−1.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.6±3.7	−2.9	+0.3
FH to the middle · rally	−3.4±2.6	−1.7	−1.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.3±3.2	−2.3	−2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.3±3.2	−2.3	−2.0
FH to the middle · rally	−3.4±2.6	−1.7	−1.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.6±3.7	−2.9	+0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.0±3.4	+0.4	−1.4
FH to the middle · return	+0.7±2.9	+0.8	−0.1

Against Claire Liu-like opponents

Maja Chwalinska v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.7%	49.2%