Game plan

Maria Sharapova v Karolina Muchova

Every number combines what Maria Sharapova does well with what Karolina Muchova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Maria Sharapova wins, best of 3 57%90%: 33%–78% · best of 5: 58%

Serve points won 58.6% / 57.3% Maria / Karolina · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 57%serve 58.6% / 57.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Maria Sharapova's record against Karolina Muchova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Maria	Karolina
Direction choice	+0.20 ±0.04 better than 85%	−0.01 ±0.05 better than 52%
Shot selection	+0.35 ±0.06 better than 83%	−0.17 ±0.09 better than 30%
Execution	−0.22 ±0.24 better than 47%	+0.22 ±0.28 better than 70%
Points left on the table	2.22 ±0.05 lower than 92%	2.88 ±0.08 lower than 18%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Maria Sharapova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Maria wins	v Karolina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	69%	65%	68.4%±3.4	48%
Body	16%	60%	58%	60.6%±5.2	1% ▼
T	36%	74%	69%	74.2%±3.6	51% ▲

Optimal v Karolina Muchova: +1.1±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Maria wins	v Karolina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	66%	69.1%±3.8	29% ▼
Body	10%	57%	54%	54.2%±6.4	0% ▼
T	56%	68%	64%	67.1%±3.7	71% ▲

Optimal v Karolina Muchova: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Karolina Muchova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Karolina wins	v Maria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	68%	62%	64.4%±3.8	40%
Body	22%	58%	55%	56.0%±5.1	7% ▼
T	38%	74%	68%	74.3%±3.6	53% ▲

Optimal v Maria Sharapova: +1.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +8.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Karolina wins	v Maria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	68%	67%	69.8%±3.7	63% ▲
Body	14%	57%	54%	54.0%±6.2	0% ▼
T	39%	67%	64%	66.5%±3.9	37% ▼

Optimal v Maria Sharapova: +1.1±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Maria Sharapova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.2	−1.0	−0.1	+3.1±1.6
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	−0.9	−1.4	+3.1±3.0
FH down the line	20%	+1.5	−0.9	−0.7	−0.1±3.2
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	−2.2	−1.7	−10.6±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−4.7	−2.5	−13.8±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1904 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	−1.4	+0.1	+4.7±1.4
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−2.3	+0.3	+5.8±2.2
BH down the line	13%	+2.2	+2.8	+0.2	+5.1±3.7
BH slice through the middle	4%	−6.2	−2.4	−1.1	−9.8±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−3.5	−2.1	−9.8±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1509 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.2	+2.0	+0.5	−0.7±2.2
FH crosscourt	31%	+0.5	±0.0	−3.9	−3.4±3.5
FH down the line	25%	−0.6	−2.1	−1.0	−3.7±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−14.9	−0.1	+0.1	−14.9±1.8
FH slice through the middle	1%	−15.2	−0.2	±0.0	−15.4±1.7

Lean FH through the middle: +1.9±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (602 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	−1.7	−0.7	−4.9±1.8
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.5	−0.8	−1.3	−0.7±2.5
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	+3.1	−2.0	+0.5±4.7
FH inside-in	3%	+0.7	+1.5	−3.9	−1.7±4.1
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	+0.2	−1.0	+0.5±3.8

Lean BH down the line: +2.8±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (850 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Karolina Muchova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+1.1	−0.6	+4.6±1.6
FH slice through the middle	18%	−6.7	+3.0	−1.5	−5.2±2.1
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.3	−0.7	−1.7	+2.9±3.1
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	−2.9	+0.8	−0.5±3.5
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+2.2	−0.1	−4.6±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +4.1±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1182 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.0	−0.4	−0.7	+4.9±1.5
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	+0.9	+0.3	+8.9±2.5
BH slice through the middle	14%	−6.2	+0.2	+0.6	−5.4±2.1
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	−1.2	+0.5	+1.5±3.8
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	−0.8	+1.9	−3.1±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1188 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	−1.4	−0.7	−5.3±2.4
FH crosscourt	28%	+0.5	−0.4	−5.5	−5.3±3.9
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	−1.9	+1.7	−0.8±4.7
FH slice through the middle	5%	−15.2	+0.1	−0.4	−15.5±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−14.9	+1.3	+0.2	−13.4±1.8

Lean FH down the line: +4.3±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (247 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	+1.0	−1.7	−3.2±1.8
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.5	−0.4	−0.4	+0.7±2.7
BH down the line	20%	−0.5	−0.3	−1.2	−2.0±4.6
FH inside-in	5%	+0.7	−1.9	−5.5	−6.6±4.0
FH through the middle	3%	−2.7	+1.7	−0.7	−1.7±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (582 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Maria Sharapova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+5.7±4.9	+0.9	+4.7
FH to their backhand · return	+3.2±4.2	+0.6	+2.6
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+3.1±7.1	+2.0	+1.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.9±3.8	+2.1	+0.8
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.8±5.3	−1.5	+3.2
BH to the middle · return	+1.4±2.1	+0.5	+0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−6.9±5.4	−2.4	−4.5
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−6.0±5.9	−3.5	−2.5
FH slice to the middle · rally	−5.7±3.6	−3.5	−2.3
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−5.1±4.9	−2.8	−2.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	−3.9±4.0	−2.4	−1.5

Karolina Muchova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.7±5.4	+1.6	+2.1
FH slice to the middle · return	+3.4±3.2	+3.4	±0.0
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.2±3.6	+2.4	+0.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.1±3.8	+2.3	+0.8
BH to the middle · return +1	+2.5±2.7	+0.2	+2.2
FH to their backhand · return	+2.2±4.4	+2.6	−0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−11.2±5.6	−3.8	−7.4
FH to their forehand · return +1	−4.8±4.1	−3.2	−1.6
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.2±3.8	−1.6	−2.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	−4.1±4.3	−2.0	−2.0
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	−3.8±4.0	−0.6	−3.2

Against Karolina Muchova-like opponents

Maria Sharapova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.4%	45.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cristina Bucsa, Karolina Pliskova, Bianca Andreescu, Marta Kostyuk, Leylah Fernandez, Olivia Gadecki, Petra Martic, Alison Van Uytvanck, R, Kiki Bertens. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.