Game plan

Marketa Vondrousova v Karolina Muchova

Every number combines what Marketa Vondrousova does well with what Karolina Muchova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Marketa Vondrousova wins, best of 3 24%90%: 13%–39% · best of 5: 19%

Serve points won 55.2% / 60.5% Marketa / Karolina · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 28%serve 55.3% / 59.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Marketa Vondrousova's record against Karolina Muchova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.3 on serve, −3.7 on return vs expectation (931 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Marketa	Karolina
Direction choice	−0.04 ±0.07 better than 47%	−0.01 ±0.05 better than 52%
Shot selection	−0.68 ±0.17 better than 7%	−0.17 ±0.09 better than 30%
Execution	+0.63 ±0.43 better than 83%	+0.22 ±0.28 better than 70%
Points left on the table	2.99 ±0.12 lower than 11%	2.88 ±0.08 lower than 18%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Marketa Vondrousova −0.15, Karolina Muchova −0.53. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Marketa Vondrousova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marketa wins	v Karolina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	22%	68%	65%	67.2%±6.3	37% ▲
Body	21%	61%	58%	61.1%±6.6	6% ▼
T	57%	63%	69%	63.3%±4.6	57%

Optimal v Karolina Muchova: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marketa wins	v Karolina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	65%	66%	65.8%±4.5	51%
Body	17%	58%	54%	55.8%±7.3	2% ▼
T	32%	69%	64%	68.0%±5.8	47% ▲

Optimal v Karolina Muchova: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Karolina Muchova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Karolina wins	v Marketa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	68%	61%	63.7%±4.7	40%
Body	22%	58%	59%	59.7%±6.5	7% ▼
T	38%	74%	65%	72.1%±4.7	53% ▲

Optimal v Marketa Vondrousova: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Karolina wins	v Marketa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	68%	64%	66.6%±5.2	46% ▼
Body	14%	57%	56%	56.4%±7.5	0% ▼
T	39%	67%	63%	65.7%±4.9	54% ▲

Optimal v Marketa Vondrousova: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Marketa Vondrousova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
FH slice through the middle	52%	−6.7	+2.4	−1.7	−6.0±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	21%	−6.6	+3.7	+2.0	−0.9±2.7
FH through the middle	10%	+4.2	−0.9	−0.1	+3.2±2.6
FH slice down the line	8%	−10.5	−2.1	−2.5	−15.0±3.4
FH crosscourt	5%	+5.3	−1.3	−0.7	+3.2±3.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.3±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (532 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.0	+1.3	+0.1	+7.4±1.7
BH crosscourt	19%	+7.7	+0.3	+0.2	+8.3±3.0
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	+0.7	−1.1	−6.6±2.4
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+2.0	+0.3	+4.5±3.8
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	+1.2	−2.1	−13.3±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (740 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
FH through the middle	41%	−3.2	−0.7	+0.5	−3.3±2.6
FH crosscourt	35%	+0.5	+0.6	−1.0	+0.1±4.1
FH down the line	18%	−0.6	+1.6	−3.9	−2.9±4.5
FH slice through the middle	6%	−15.2	−1.1	±0.0	−16.3±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (142 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
BH through the middle	50%	−2.6	+2.6	−0.7	−0.6±2.1
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.5	+0.5	−2.0	±0.0±3.3
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	−1.8	−1.3	−3.6±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (351 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Karolina Muchova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+1.1	−2.2	+3.1±2.1
FH slice through the middle	18%	−6.7	+3.0	+1.0	−2.7±2.3
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.3	−0.7	+1.9	+6.5±4.0
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	−2.9	−5.7	−7.0±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+2.2	+0.8	−3.6±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.5±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1182 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.0	−0.4	+1.3	+6.9±1.7
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	+0.9	−1.7	+6.9±3.0
BH slice through the middle	14%	−6.2	+0.2	+1.1	−5.0±2.3
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	−1.2	−2.5	−1.5±4.0
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	−0.8	+1.2	−3.8±3.0

Lean BH through the middle: +3.8±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1188 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	−1.4	+1.6	−3.0±2.8
FH crosscourt	28%	+0.5	−0.4	−1.0	−0.8±4.4
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	−1.9	−5.3	−7.8±5.2
FH slice through the middle	5%	−15.2	+0.1	+2.0	−13.1±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−14.9	+1.3	+0.1	−13.5±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.4±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (247 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	+1.0	−0.2	−1.8±2.1
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.5	−0.4	+1.6	+2.7±3.0
BH down the line	20%	−0.5	−0.3	+0.9	+0.1±4.9
FH inside-in	5%	+0.7	−1.9	−1.0	−2.1±4.7
FH through the middle	3%	−2.7	+1.7	+1.6	+0.6±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (582 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Marketa Vondrousova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+7.0±4.0	+6.5	+0.5
BH lob to the middle · rally	+5.3±4.1	+2.0	+3.3
FH slice to their backhand · rally	+4.8±4.9	+5.9	−1.1
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.7±3.5	+5.7	−2.1
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.3±2.3	+2.0	+1.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.3±4.1	+2.4	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−7.1±3.8	−4.7	−2.4
FH to the middle · return	−5.8±2.5	−5.4	−0.5
FH to their forehand · return	−4.3±5.2	−1.4	−2.9
BH to their forehand · return +1	−3.9±5.1	−0.8	−3.1
FH to their backhand · return	−3.5±4.6	−1.3	−2.2

Karolina Muchova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to the middle · return	+5.5±3.0	+3.3	+2.3
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+4.7±8.3	+0.2	+4.5
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+3.6±4.0	+1.8	+1.8
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.7±4.1	+1.4	+1.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.5±3.9	+1.7	+0.8
BH to the middle · return +1	+2.3±2.5	−0.6	+2.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−9.7±4.4	−1.1	−8.6
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−6.5±8.4	±0.0	−6.5
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.1±3.9	−1.4	−4.6
BH to their forehand · return +1	−4.1±4.6	−4.0	−0.2
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−4.0±7.7	+0.4	−4.4

Against Karolina Muchova-like opponents

Marketa Vondrousova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	56.8%	45.0%
Players most similar to Karolina Muchova	7	57.5%	40.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cristina Bucsa, Karolina Pliskova, Bianca Andreescu, Marta Kostyuk, Leylah Fernandez, Olivia Gadecki, Petra Martic, Alison Van Uytvanck, R, Kiki Bertens. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.