Game plan

Milos Raonic v Dudi Sela

Every number combines what Milos Raonic does well with what Dudi Sela allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Milos Raonic wins, best of 3 64%90%: 34%–87% · best of 5: 68%

Serve points won 68.1% / 65.1% Milos / Dudi · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 64%serve 68.1% / 65.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Milos Raonic's record against Dudi Sela's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Milos Raonic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Milos wins	v Dudi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	77%	71%	76.1%±7.2	43% ▼
Body	7%	74%	63%	73.8%±11.8	0% ▼
T	44%	85%	80%	88.3%±4.5	57% ▲

Optimal v Dudi Sela: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +7.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Milos wins	v Dudi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	84%	74%	84.4%±5.4	50% ▼
Body	7%	67%	61%	65.4%±13.9	0% ▼
T	37%	80%	77%	83.7%±6.1	50% ▲

Optimal v Dudi Sela: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Dudi Sela serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Dudi wins	v Milos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	73%	76%	75.6%±7.1	42% ▼
Body	6%	66%	69%	70.8%±12.3	0% ▼
T	45%	75%	78%	77.8%±7.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Milos Raonic: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Dudi wins	v Milos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	73%	78%	78.5%±7.2	69% ▲
Body	6%	68%	66%	70.7%±13.2	0% ▼
T	38%	67%	76%	71.0%±8.5	31% ▼

Optimal v Milos Raonic: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Milos Raonic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dudi	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	−0.8	−2.0	+1.4±2.4
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.5	−3.8	−0.4	+1.3±3.2
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	−2.5	−0.3	−1.1±3.9
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	−1.8	±0.0	−6.0±1.6
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−4.3	−1.3	±0.0	−5.7±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +1.0±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1484 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dudi	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−0.5	−1.1	+4.8±2.3
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−2.9	−1.1	+4.8±2.9
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−1.5	−1.6	−7.3±1.9
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−0.9	+1.0	+4.3±3.2
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−1.5	+0.5	−0.4±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1719 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dudi	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	−0.4	+1.0	−2.9±2.7
FH crosscourt	32%	−0.2	+0.3	−1.6	−1.6±3.7
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−1.0	−0.5	−3.3±4.5
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	+0.2	±0.0	−12.5±1.1
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−0.6	±0.0	−10.0±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.2±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (383 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dudi	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	−1.5	−0.1	−4.5±2.1
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	−3.3	+0.2	−2.1±2.7
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	+0.3	−0.4	−0.3±4.6
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.1	+1.0	−1.8±2.4
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	−2.7	−1.6	−3.8±3.9

Lean BH down the line: +3.0±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1074 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Dudi Sela returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
FH through the middle	38%	+4.3	−0.2	−1.3	+2.8±2.5
FH slice through the middle	30%	−4.2	−0.4	−0.8	−5.4±2.0
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	+1.7	−1.5	+2.0±3.3
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.3	+0.3	+0.6	−3.4±2.4
FH slice down the line	7%	−4.3	+1.7	−1.2	−3.8±2.6

Lean FH through the middle: +3.7±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
BH slice through the middle	39%	−4.2	−0.3	−0.2	−4.7±2.1
BH through the middle	23%	+6.4	−2.3	−2.1	+2.0±2.2
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	+2.0	−1.8	+9.0±2.8
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	−3.5	−4.6	−3.8±3.8
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	+0.3	−0.9	−0.1±2.2

Lean BH through the middle: +3.3±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (87 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.9	+0.4	−0.4	−2.9±2.1
BH slice through the middle	28%	−11.3	+0.3	−1.1	−12.1±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	15%	−4.0	+0.9	−2.0	−5.1±2.2
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	±0.0	−2.8	−3.0±3.8
BH crosscourt	6%	+1.0	+0.6	−1.6	±0.0±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +2.7±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (87 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Milos Raonic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.8±3.1	−0.5	+1.3
BH to the middle · return	−0.9±2.0	−0.5	−0.5
FH to the middle · return	−1.4±2.2	−0.5	−0.9
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.8±3.0	−2.0	+0.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.6±3.4	+3.5	−7.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.6±2.7	−1.9	−2.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	−6.4±2.1	−1.8	−4.5
BH to their backhand · rally	−6.2±2.6	−4.8	−1.5
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.6±2.7	−1.9	−2.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.6±3.4	+3.5	−7.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.8±3.0	−2.0	+0.2

Dudi Sela

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	±0.0±3.1	−0.9	+1.0
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.2±2.4	+0.3	−0.5
FH to the middle · rally	−1.9±2.1	−0.7	−1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±3.0	−2.1	+0.1
BH slice to the middle · return	−2.1±2.1	−1.0	−1.1
BH to the middle · return	−4.7±2.2	−2.7	−2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−4.7±2.2	−2.7	−2.0
BH slice to the middle · return	−2.1±2.1	−1.0	−1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±3.0	−2.1	+0.1
FH to the middle · rally	−1.9±2.1	−0.7	−1.2
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.2±2.4	+0.3	−0.5

Against Dudi Sela-like opponents

Milos Raonic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	69.9%	31.3%