Game plan

Miomir Kecmanovic v Blaz Kavcic

Every number combines what Miomir Kecmanovic does well with what Blaz Kavcic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Miomir Kecmanovic wins, best of 3 60%90%: 25%–88% · best of 5: 63%

Serve points won 65.1% / 63.0% Miomir / Blaz · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 60%serve 65.1% / 63.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Miomir Kecmanovic's record against Blaz Kavcic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Miomir Kecmanovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Miomir wins	v Blaz	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	68%	77%	72.0%±9.6	42%
Body	16%	61%	58%	55.6%±14.7	2% ▼
T	43%	73%	77%	75.7%±8.7	56% ▲

Optimal v Blaz Kavcic: +1.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Miomir wins	v Blaz	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	71%	80%	78.9%±8.3	58% ▲
Body	14%	65%	64%	65.9%±13.9	1% ▼
T	41%	68%	70%	66.4%±10.3	41%

Optimal v Blaz Kavcic: +1.0±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Blaz Kavcic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Blaz wins	v Miomir	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	65%	76%	68.2%±8.8	47%
Body	13%	61%	58%	55.4%±13.8	0% ▼
T	40%	68%	80%	73.7%±9.0	53% ▲

Optimal v Miomir Kecmanovic: +1.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Blaz wins	v Miomir	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	66%	73%	67.2%±9.7	43% ▼
Body	12%	62%	58%	56.9%±14.0	0% ▼
T	44%	67%	73%	67.8%±9.8	57% ▲

Optimal v Miomir Kecmanovic: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Miomir Kecmanovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Blaz	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	+2.7	+1.3	+8.2±2.6
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	+0.3	+2.6	+8.4±3.7
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	+4.3	+2.8	+8.8±4.3
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−0.1	±0.0	−4.3±1.6
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−0.3	±0.0	−4.6±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +2.3±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (845 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Blaz	Value
BH crosscourt	37%	+8.8	+3.2	+1.0	+13.0±2.6
BH through the middle	35%	+6.4	+1.6	−0.8	+7.1±2.5
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−0.2	−0.9	−5.4±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	+0.5	+1.3	+2.3±2.9
BH down the line	5%	+4.2	+0.7	+2.2	+7.1±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.1±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (721 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Blaz	Value
FH through the middle	56%	−3.5	+0.6	+0.4	−2.5±2.7
FH crosscourt	28%	−0.2	+2.8	+2.5	+5.1±3.6
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	+1.1	+2.5	+1.8±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (172 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Blaz	Value
BH crosscourt	46%	+1.0	+2.0	−1.0	+2.0±2.5
BH through the middle	42%	−2.9	+1.8	+0.7	−0.4±2.0
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	+0.5	±0.0	+0.3±3.5
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.4	−1.6±2.1
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+2.6	+2.5	+5.7±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (550 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Blaz Kavcic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miomir	Value
FH through the middle	57%	+4.3	+2.0	+1.1	+7.4±2.5
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+1.2	+1.8	+4.7±3.7
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+0.9	+0.5	−2.7±2.0
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	+1.6	+4.0	+11.1±3.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miomir	Value
BH through the middle	35%	+6.4	−0.1	+2.4	+8.8±2.3
BH slice through the middle	32%	−4.2	−1.4	+0.9	−4.7±2.3
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−2.6	+1.4	+7.7±2.6
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	+2.5	−0.5	+6.3±3.8
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	−1.8	−0.8	−2.0±2.5

Lean BH through the middle: +5.7±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Miomir	Value
BH through the middle	68%	−2.9	+0.3	+0.3	−2.3±2.1
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	−0.2	+0.4	+1.2±2.5
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−1.3	+0.1	−1.3±3.8

Lean BH through the middle: −0.9±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Miomir Kecmanovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.0±4.0	+3.3	+1.7
FH to the middle · return	+4.7±3.3	+2.9	+1.8
FH to the middle · rally	+3.1±2.9	+1.2	+1.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.3±3.9	+2.6	−0.3
BH to the middle · rally	+1.8±2.6	+1.2	+0.6
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.6±3.0	+1.4	+0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±3.2	−1.1	−1.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.7±4.5	+1.0	−0.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.6±3.0	+1.4	+0.2
BH to the middle · rally	+1.8±2.6	+1.2	+0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.3±3.9	+2.6	−0.3

Blaz Kavcic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+7.3±3.9	+0.8	+6.4
FH to the middle · rally	+3.1±2.9	+2.8	+0.3
BH to the middle · rally	+2.6±2.6	+0.6	+1.9
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.5±3.3	+0.7	−1.2
BH to the middle · return	−1.2±3.0	−1.8	+0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±4.1	−3.0	+1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±4.1	−3.0	+1.0
BH to the middle · return	−1.2±3.0	−1.8	+0.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.5±3.3	+0.7	−1.2
BH to the middle · rally	+2.6±2.6	+0.6	+1.9
FH to the middle · rally	+3.1±2.9	+2.8	+0.3

Against Blaz Kavcic-like opponents

Miomir Kecmanovic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.7%	35.0%