Game plan

Monica Niculescu v Alize Cornet

Every number combines what Monica Niculescu does well with what Alize Cornet allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Monica Niculescu wins, best of 3 40%90%: 14%–72% · best of 5: 38%

Serve points won 51.7% / 53.6% Monica / Alize · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 41%serve 52.1% / 53.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Monica Niculescu's record against Alize Cornet's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.8 on serve, +1.8 on return vs expectation (383 points); head-to-head: −2.5 on serve, +0.5 on return vs expectation (262 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Monica	Alize
Direction choice	−0.30 ±0.13 better than 6%	−0.29 ±0.10 better than 9%
Shot selection	−2.97 ±0.45 better than 0%	−0.28 ±0.15 better than 22%
Execution	+2.03 ±0.57 better than 98%	+0.52 ±0.47 better than 79%
Points left on the table	3.44 ±0.15 lower than 2%	2.79 ±0.13 lower than 24%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Monica Niculescu serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Monica wins	v Alize	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	58%	64%	55.2%±7.6	41%
Body	38%	52%	55%	49.2%±8.0	23% ▼
T	21%	63%	65%	60.2%±9.7	36% ▲

Optimal v Alize Cornet: +1.0±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Monica wins	v Alize	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	34%	62%	61%	57.9%±9.0	43% ▲
Body	30%	55%	58%	56.9%±9.0	36% ▲
T	36%	57%	61%	53.9%±8.4	21% ▼

Optimal v Alize Cornet: +0.1±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alize Cornet serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alize wins	v Monica	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	62%	62%	58.3%±7.3	59% ▲
Body	28%	57%	54%	53.0%±10.2	13% ▼
T	28%	64%	68%	63.8%±8.8	28%

Optimal v Monica Niculescu: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alize wins	v Monica	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	67%	69%	71.3%±7.7	31%
Body	36%	60%	59%	62.3%±9.4	21% ▼
T	33%	58%	59%	52.4%±8.9	48% ▲

Optimal v Monica Niculescu: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +9.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Monica Niculescu returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alize	Value
FH slice through the middle	45%	−6.7	+4.0	+0.4	−2.4±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	31%	−6.6	+4.4	+1.4	−0.9±2.7
FH slice down the line	13%	−10.5	+7.4	−1.0	−4.1±3.2
FH through the middle	9%	+4.2	−1.1	+1.1	+4.1±2.6
FH crosscourt	3%	+5.3	+1.3	+2.1	+8.7±3.4

Lean FH through the middle: +5.4±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (262 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alize	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	+1.9	+1.8	+9.8±2.5
BH crosscourt	21%	+7.7	±0.0	+1.6	+9.4±3.5
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+2.7	−0.4	+4.5±4.4
BH slice through the middle	9%	−6.2	±0.0	−0.7	−7.0±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	−0.3	+0.2	−4.3±2.5

Lean BH through the middle: +3.8±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alize	Value
FH slice through the middle	39%	−15.2	+2.6	+0.7	−12.0±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	35%	−14.9	+2.5	+1.5	−10.9±2.4
BH through the middle	11%	−1.0	−0.1	−0.9	−2.0±2.0
FH slice down the line	11%	−14.1	−0.5	±0.0	−14.6±2.0
FH crosscourt	5%	+0.5	+0.7	+3.3	+4.5±3.5

Lean FH slice crosscourt: −0.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (103 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alize	Value
BH through the middle	57%	−2.6	+1.9	−0.9	−1.6±2.6
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.5	+1.7	+2.0	+5.2±3.3
BH down the line	21%	−0.5	−0.3	+0.7	−0.2±4.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)

Alize Cornet returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Monica	Value
FH through the middle	36%	+4.2	+2.4	+2.9	+9.5±2.6
FH down the line	24%	+1.5	+1.8	+6.3	+9.6±4.5
FH slice through the middle	19%	−6.7	+0.8	+0.8	−5.0±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+1.8	+1.6	−3.2±2.6
FH crosscourt	8%	+5.3	+2.1	+2.3	+9.7±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.6±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (473 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Monica	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+0.1	+0.4	+6.5±2.5
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	+0.5	+2.2	+10.4±3.6
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	+2.9	+3.2	+8.3±4.7
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	−1.2	+0.2	−7.2±2.3
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	+0.4	±0.0	−12.1±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (385 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Monica	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.2	+2.6	+3.0	+2.4±3.1
FH down the line	36%	−0.6	+3.0	+2.0	+4.5±5.2
FH crosscourt	10%	+0.5	±0.0	+1.9	+2.4±3.9
FH slice through the middle	8%	−15.2	+1.0	±0.0	−14.2±1.2

Lean FH down the line: +2.6±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Monica	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	+1.0	−1.4	−3.0±2.6
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.5	−0.8	−0.5	+0.2±3.5
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	+2.7	+1.8	+4.0±4.7
FH through the middle	8%	−2.7	+0.9	+3.0	+1.2±2.5
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	+0.3	+2.0	+3.7±3.5

Lean BH down the line: +4.5±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.