Game plan

Nadia Podoroska v Elsa Jacquemot

Every number combines what Nadia Podoroska does well with what Elsa Jacquemot allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Nadia Podoroska wins, best of 3 25%90%: 4%–66% · best of 5: 20%

Serve points won 53.8% / 58.9% Nadia / Elsa · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 25%serve 53.8% / 58.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Nadia Podoroska's record against Elsa Jacquemot's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Nadia	Elsa
Direction choice	−0.12 ±0.12 better than 33%	+0.03 ±0.09 better than 59%
Shot selection	+0.26 ±0.15 better than 74%	−0.54 ±0.62 better than 10%
Execution	−1.45 ±0.80 better than 11%	+1.04 ±0.85 better than 93%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Nadia Podoroska serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nadia wins	v Elsa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	57%	71%	62.4%±11.4	51% ▲
Body	21%	50%	53%	46.2%±11.9	6% ▼
T	43%	66%	69%	66.9%±11.7	43%

Optimal v Elsa Jacquemot: +0.7±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nadia wins	v Elsa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	34%	60%	66%	60.5%±11.9	49% ▲
Body	23%	64%	49%	57.1%±12.5	15% ▼
T	43%	55%	64%	54.8%±11.9	36% ▼

Optimal v Elsa Jacquemot: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Elsa Jacquemot serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elsa wins	v Nadia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	60%	71%	66.1%±9.9	54% ▲
Body	14%	57%	65%	65.2%±13.1	0% ▼
T	34%	72%	69%	73.1%±10.9	46% ▲

Optimal v Nadia Podoroska: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elsa wins	v Nadia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	74%	70%	77.2%±8.6	63% ▲
Body	20%	58%	62%	64.3%±13.1	5% ▼
T	33%	63%	64%	61.8%±12.0	32%

Optimal v Nadia Podoroska: +1.0±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Nadia Podoroska returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elsa	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.2	−0.8	+2.2	+5.6±3.2
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+0.1	+0.2	+5.6±4.3
FH slice through the middle	19%	−6.7	−0.1	−0.4	−7.2±2.5
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+2.0	−4.0	−0.5±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−6.6	+1.2	±0.0	−5.4±2.2

Lean FH through the middle: +4.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (144 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elsa	Value
BH through the middle	56%	+6.0	+0.4	−2.0	+4.4±2.9
BH crosscourt	26%	+7.7	−0.4	−0.5	+6.8±3.5
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−1.2	−2.4	−1.5±4.0
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	+0.5	−1.6	−7.4±1.9
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	+0.8	−0.8	−12.4±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (171 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elsa	Value
BH through the middle	41%	−2.6	+0.8	−3.9	−5.7±2.6
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.5	−1.0	+2.2	+2.7±2.9
FH through the middle	13%	−2.7	±0.0	+2.4	−0.3±2.4
BH down the line	6%	−0.5	−2.2	±0.0	−2.7±2.3
FH inside-in	5%	+0.7	+0.6	+1.1	+2.4±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (98 returns charted)

Elsa Jacquemot returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nadia	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+0.8	+0.8	+5.8±3.0
FH down the line	34%	+1.5	+3.7	+0.5	+5.7±4.7
FH slice through the middle	13%	−6.7	−0.5	−0.4	−7.6±2.0
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.3	+1.0	−0.3	+6.0±3.8

Lean FH through the middle: +1.8±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nadia	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.0	+2.5	−0.1	+8.4±2.8
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	+2.7	+0.8	+11.3±3.5
BH slice through the middle	17%	−6.2	+0.4	−1.4	−7.2±2.1
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	+0.7	+2.1	+5.0±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Nadia Podoroska

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+6.9±4.4	+3.8	+3.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.7±4.0	+0.8	+0.8
BH to their backhand · return +1	+0.3±4.3	−1.0	+1.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.3±5.0	−2.1	+2.4
FH to the middle · return	−0.3±3.4	−2.1	+1.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.4±5.1	+0.4	−0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.5±5.9	−6.8	+3.3
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.0±4.7	−2.1	−0.9
BH to the middle · rally	−2.0±2.9	−2.4	+0.4
FH to the middle · rally	−1.9±3.2	−0.2	−1.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.7±4.8	−4.4	+2.6

Elsa Jacquemot

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+4.6±3.9	+3.0	+1.6
BH to their backhand · return	+4.1±4.3	+1.9	+2.3
BH to the middle · return	+3.5±3.3	+2.2	+1.3
FH to their backhand · return	+3.3±5.4	+3.2	+0.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.1±5.0	+0.6	+2.5
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±4.7	−0.2	+3.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	−1.0±3.0	+1.6	−2.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.3±4.6	+1.0	−0.7
BH to their backhand · return +1	+0.5±4.5	+0.4	+0.1
FH to the middle · rally	+1.9±3.3	−0.1	+2.0
FH to the middle · return	+2.1±3.5	+0.4	+1.6

Against Elsa Jacquemot-like opponents

Nadia Podoroska v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	52.4%	37.7%