Game plan

Ons Jabeur v Maria Sharapova

Every number combines what Ons Jabeur does well with what Maria Sharapova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Ons Jabeur wins, best of 3 44%90%: 21%–69% · best of 5: 43%

Serve points won 57.3% / 58.5% Ons / Maria · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 35%serve 56.8% / 59.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Ons Jabeur's record against Maria Sharapova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.6 on serve, +5.9 on return vs expectation (764 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Ons	Maria
Direction choice	+0.26 ±0.05 better than 92%	+0.20 ±0.04 better than 85%
Shot selection	−0.26 ±0.12 better than 24%	+0.35 ±0.06 better than 83%
Execution	−0.79 ±0.34 better than 24%	−0.22 ±0.24 better than 47%
Points left on the table	2.42 ±0.08 lower than 74%	2.22 ±0.05 lower than 92%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Ons Jabeur serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ons wins	v Maria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	67%	62%	63.1%±4.2	46%
Body	7%	62%	55%	60.0%±8.3	0% ▼
T	46%	69%	68%	68.5%±4.5	54% ▲

Optimal v Maria Sharapova: ±0.0±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ons wins	v Maria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	29%	67%	67%	68.6%±5.5	44% ▲
Body	10%	54%	54%	51.1%±8.0	0% ▼
T	61%	67%	64%	66.0%±4.1	56% ▼

Optimal v Maria Sharapova: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Maria Sharapova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Maria wins	v Ons	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	69%	65%	68.6%±4.0	63% ▲
Body	16%	60%	56%	58.8%±5.8	1% ▼
T	36%	74%	64%	70.1%±4.4	36%

Optimal v Ons Jabeur: +1.0±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Maria wins	v Ons	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	69%	72.3%±4.2	48% ▲
Body	10%	57%	54%	54.6%±6.6	0% ▼
T	56%	68%	66%	69.1%±4.4	52% ▼

Optimal v Ons Jabeur: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Ons Jabeur returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
FH through the middle	28%	+4.2	−3.1	−0.6	+0.4±2.0
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	−1.7	−1.7	+1.9±3.0
FH slice through the middle	22%	−6.7	+2.4	−1.5	−5.9±2.3
FH down the line	10%	+1.5	−0.4	+0.8	+1.9±3.9
FH slice crosscourt	10%	−6.6	−1.6	−0.1	−8.4±2.8

Lean FH down the line: +3.7±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (697 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
BH through the middle	37%	+6.0	+1.1	−0.7	+6.4±1.8
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−0.3	+0.3	+7.8±2.6
BH slice through the middle	12%	−6.2	−2.5	+0.6	−8.1±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.2	−0.6	+1.9	−2.8±3.0
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+1.0	+0.5	+3.6±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.3±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (742 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
FH through the middle	38%	−3.2	+1.9	−0.7	−2.0±2.6
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	−4.5	−5.5	−9.4±3.9
FH slice through the middle	14%	−15.2	±0.0	−0.4	−15.6±2.2
FH down the line	13%	−0.6	−4.1	+1.7	−3.0±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−14.9	−0.4	+0.2	−15.1±1.8

Lean FH through the middle: +4.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (143 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
BH crosscourt	46%	+1.5	+0.1	−0.4	+1.1±2.7
BH through the middle	29%	−2.6	−2.2	−1.7	−6.5±2.1
BH down the line	20%	−0.5	−3.3	−1.2	−5.0±4.8
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−7.5	+0.2	−0.2	−7.5±2.4
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.7	−0.5	+0.8	−11.4±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.9±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (365 returns charted)

Maria Sharapova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ons	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.2	−1.0	−0.9	+2.3±1.7
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	−0.9	−3.2	+1.3±3.1
FH down the line	20%	+1.5	−0.9	−2.1	−1.5±3.6
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	−2.2	−0.6	−9.5±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−4.7	−1.0	−12.3±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +1.8±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1904 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ons	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	−1.4	−0.8	+3.8±1.8
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−2.3	−0.4	+5.0±2.8
BH down the line	13%	+2.2	+2.8	−1.9	+3.0±4.1
BH slice through the middle	4%	−6.2	−2.4	+0.4	−8.2±2.6
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−3.5	−0.6	−8.3±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1509 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ons	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.2	+2.0	+0.5	−0.7±2.4
FH crosscourt	31%	+0.5	±0.0	−1.0	−0.5±3.9
FH down the line	25%	−0.6	−2.1	−0.8	−3.5±4.7
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−14.9	−0.1	±0.0	−14.9±1.3
FH slice through the middle	1%	−15.2	−0.2	+0.1	−15.3±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (602 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ons	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	−1.7	+0.1	−4.2±1.9
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.5	−0.8	+1.5	+2.1±2.4
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	+3.1	+0.2	+2.7±4.7
FH inside-in	3%	+0.7	+1.5	−1.0	+1.2±4.4
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	+0.2	−0.8	+0.7±4.0

Lean BH down the line: +3.2±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (850 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Ons Jabeur

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return +1	+0.5±2.0	+0.2	+0.4
BH slice to their backhand · return	+0.4±3.0	−1.1	+1.5
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.4±2.4	−0.6	+1.0
BH slice to the middle · rally	+0.2±1.8	+0.3	−0.1
FH slice to the middle · return	±0.0±2.2	+1.5	−1.5
BH slice to the middle · return +1	−0.1±2.1	+0.8	−0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−7.1±2.8	−4.2	−2.9
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	−6.3±3.0	−3.4	−2.9
BH to their forehand · return +1	−6.0±3.8	−1.7	−4.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	−5.8±3.0	−3.0	−2.7
FH to their forehand · return	−4.3±2.6	−1.6	−2.7

Maria Sharapova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+1.7±3.0	+2.9	−1.2
BH to the middle · serve +1	+1.3±1.7	−0.3	+1.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	+0.5±3.0	−0.1	+0.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.4±2.0	−0.2	+0.6
FH to the middle · rally	+0.1±1.4	−0.1	+0.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	+0.1±2.6	−1.3	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−5.3±3.6	−2.0	−3.3
BH slice to the middle · rally	−2.8±2.3	−1.6	−1.1
FH slice to the middle · return	−2.6±2.5	−2.1	−0.6
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.5±3.4	−1.8	−0.7
FH to their forehand · return	−2.2±2.6	+0.3	−2.5

Against Maria Sharapova-like opponents

Ons Jabeur v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.3%	41.4%
Players most similar to Maria Sharapova	6	57.7%	44.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Naomi Osaka, Anastasia Potapova, Karolina Pliskova, Iga Swiatek, Belinda Bencic, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Rebecca Sramkova, Shuai Zhang, Eugenie Bouchard, Na Li. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.