Game plan

Petra Martic v Claudia Kohde Kilsch

Every number combines what Petra Martic does well with what Claudia Kohde Kilsch allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Petra Martic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Petra wins	v Claudia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	65%	66%	65.7%±12.1	49%
Body	14%	57%	61%	61.0%±12.9	0% ▼
T	36%	72%	66%	70.8%±11.0	51% ▲

Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +1.1±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Petra wins	v Claudia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	68%	60%	61.7%±10.6	49%
Body	19%	58%	55%	56.5%±14.6	4% ▼
T	32%	60%	67%	61.9%±14.5	47% ▲

Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.6±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Claudia Kohde Kilsch serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Claudia wins	v Petra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	72%	75.1%±10.0	48% ▲
Body	40%	54%	59%	54.9%±12.1	25% ▼
T	26%	59%	67%	58.7%±13.1	27%

Optimal v Petra Martic: +1.2±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +12.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Claudia wins	v Petra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	20%	67%	64%	65.2%±13.8	35% ▲
Body	42%	55%	59%	57.7%±12.2	27% ▼
T	39%	56%	69%	61.8%±12.3	38%

Optimal v Petra Martic: +0.7±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Petra Martic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
FH through the middle	55%	+4.2	+1.1	−1.0	+4.2±2.8
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	+2.5	−0.1	+7.7±4.2
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	+0.7	+0.1	+2.3±4.5
FH slice through the middle	2%	−6.7	+0.8	±0.0	−5.9±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (364 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.0	−1.3	−1.6	+3.0±2.5
BH crosscourt	21%	+7.7	+0.6	+0.1	+8.5±3.1
BH slice through the middle	18%	−6.2	+0.7	+0.9	−4.6±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	−0.4	+0.7	−3.9±2.6
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	+2.0	±0.0	+4.2±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (441 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	−1.2	+0.2	−0.5±4.1
FH down the line	38%	−0.6	+2.0	−1.9	−0.4±4.7
FH through the middle	22%	−3.2	−1.8	±0.0	−5.0±2.5

Lean FH down the line: +1.0±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.5	+1.7	±0.0	+3.2±2.6
BH through the middle	28%	−2.6	−0.4	−0.1	−3.1±2.4
FH through the middle	13%	−2.7	−1.7	±0.0	−4.4±2.2
FH inside-in	12%	+0.7	−1.2	+0.2	−0.2±4.2
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	−1.6	±0.0	−2.1±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (189 returns charted)

Claudia Kohde Kilsch returning

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
BH slice crosscourt	67%	−4.2	+3.8	−1.1	−1.4±2.8
BH slice through the middle	33%	−6.2	−0.1	±0.0	−6.4±2.4

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +1.6±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Petra Martic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.5±2.4	+1.2	+4.3
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+3.9±3.4	+1.9	+2.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.2±3.2	+0.6	+0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.5±3.6	+1.2	−1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.5±3.6	+1.2	−1.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.2±3.2	+0.6	+0.6
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+3.9±3.4	+1.9	+2.0
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.5±2.4	+1.2	+4.3

Claudia Kohde Kilsch

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.8±2.6	+5.7	+0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.6±3.2	−3.3	−0.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.3±3.5	−6.2	+0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.3±3.5	−6.2	+0.9
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.6±3.2	−3.3	−0.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.8±2.6	+5.7	+0.1

Against Claudia Kohde Kilsch-like opponents

Petra Martic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.8%	40.3%