Game plan

Rebecca Sramkova v Maria Sharapova

Every number combines what Rebecca Sramkova does well with what Maria Sharapova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Rebecca Sramkova wins, best of 3 42%90%: 16%–73% · best of 5: 40%

Serve points won 58.1% / 59.6% Rebecca / Maria · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 45%serve 58.3% / 59.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Rebecca Sramkova's record against Maria Sharapova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −2.6 on serve, −6.6 on return vs expectation (196 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Rebecca	Maria
Direction choice	+0.13 ±0.10 better than 78%	+0.20 ±0.04 better than 85%
Shot selection	+0.36 ±0.16 better than 85%	+0.35 ±0.06 better than 83%
Execution	+0.19 ±0.92 better than 69%	−0.22 ±0.24 better than 47%
Points left on the table	2.21 ±0.15 lower than 93%	2.22 ±0.05 lower than 92%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Rebecca Sramkova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Rebecca wins	v Maria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	65%	62%	60.6%±7.4	40%
Body	21%	56%	55%	53.8%±9.5	6% ▼
T	39%	67%	68%	67.0%±8.1	54% ▲

Optimal v Maria Sharapova: +0.9±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Rebecca wins	v Maria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	61%	67%	62.9%±8.1	48% ▲
Body	15%	49%	54%	46.4%±10.6	0% ▼
T	51%	69%	64%	67.8%±7.0	52%

Optimal v Maria Sharapova: +1.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Maria Sharapova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Maria wins	v Rebecca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	69%	69%	72.2%±7.1	54% ▲
Body	16%	60%	57%	60.2%±8.6	1% ▼
T	36%	74%	71%	76.4%±6.0	45% ▲

Optimal v Rebecca Sramkova: +1.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Maria wins	v Rebecca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	66%	68.9%±7.4	38% ▲
Body	10%	57%	57%	58.1%±9.5	0% ▼
T	56%	68%	58%	61.2%±7.6	62% ▲

Optimal v Rebecca Sramkova: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Rebecca Sramkova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	+0.2	−0.6	+3.7±2.4
FH down the line	31%	+1.5	+3.0	+0.8	+5.4±3.9
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.3	+1.0	−1.7	+4.6±3.4
FH slice through the middle	3%	−6.7	−0.6	−1.5	−8.8±1.9

Lean FH down the line: +1.4±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (144 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
BH through the middle	55%	+6.0	−0.3	−0.7	+5.0±2.2
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	−3.0	+0.3	+5.1±3.0
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	−0.7	+0.5	+1.9±4.0
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	+0.6	+0.6	−5.0±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.0±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (159 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
FH down the line	43%	−0.6	−0.5	+1.7	+0.6±4.4
FH crosscourt	33%	+0.5	−0.7	−5.5	−5.6±3.5
FH through the middle	24%	−3.2	−2.2	−0.7	−6.1±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +3.7±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (42 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Maria	Value
BH through the middle	36%	−2.6	−0.3	−1.7	−4.6±2.2
BH down the line	34%	−0.5	−0.2	−1.2	−2.0±4.7
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.5	−1.5	−0.4	−0.5±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (92 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Maria Sharapova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rebecca	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.2	−1.0	+2.2	+5.4±2.3
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	−0.9	+1.0	+5.4±3.6
FH down the line	20%	+1.5	−0.9	−0.7	−0.1±4.0
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	−2.2	−2.3	−11.3±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−4.7	+1.0	−10.4±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1904 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rebecca	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	−1.4	+1.0	+5.6±2.3
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−2.3	+3.2	+8.6±3.0
BH down the line	13%	+2.2	+2.8	−0.9	+4.1±4.1
BH slice through the middle	4%	−6.2	−2.4	+0.4	−8.2±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−3.5	±0.0	−7.7±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1509 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rebecca	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.2	+2.0	+2.0	+0.8±2.7
FH crosscourt	31%	+0.5	±0.0	+2.4	+2.9±4.0
FH down the line	25%	−0.6	−2.1	−3.4	−6.1±4.7
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−14.9	−0.1	±0.0	−14.9±1.3
FH slice through the middle	1%	−15.2	−0.2	±0.0	−15.4±1.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (602 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rebecca	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	−1.7	+1.1	−3.1±2.3
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.5	−0.8	+1.7	+2.3±3.1
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	+3.1	−1.7	+0.8±5.0
FH inside-in	3%	+0.7	+1.5	+2.4	+4.6±4.6
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	+0.2	−3.4	−1.8±4.0

Lean FH inside-in: +4.8±4.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (850 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Rebecca Sramkova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.7±6.0	+4.6	+2.1
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.3±4.3	+3.6	+0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.5±4.0	+1.6	+1.0
FH to their backhand · return	+2.4±5.0	+2.9	−0.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.9±4.8	+3.5	−1.6
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.6±3.6	+1.3	+0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.0±5.2	−0.7	−3.3
BH to their backhand · return +1	−3.1±4.2	−0.6	−2.6
FH to the middle · serve +1	−3.0±3.3	−2.2	−0.8
FH to their forehand · return	−1.2±5.3	+1.5	−2.7
BH to their forehand · return	−1.0±5.8	+0.1	−1.0

Maria Sharapova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+4.9±3.1	+1.4	+3.5
BH to the middle · rally	+3.6±2.7	+0.7	+2.9
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.5±3.7	−1.1	+4.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.9±4.2	+0.3	+2.6
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.8±3.4	−0.2	+3.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.7±4.1	+0.5	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−5.9±5.4	−2.0	−3.9
BH to their backhand · return +1	−5.1±4.2	−3.6	−1.5
FH to the middle · rally	−2.6±2.9	+0.2	−2.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.9±4.9	−0.6	−0.3
FH to the middle · return +1	−0.8±3.4	−1.3	+0.4

Against Maria Sharapova-like opponents

Rebecca Sramkova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.7%	42.0%
Players most similar to Maria Sharapova	2	50.0%	30.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Naomi Osaka, Anastasia Potapova, Karolina Pliskova, Iga Swiatek, Belinda Bencic, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Shuai Zhang, Eugenie Bouchard, Na Li. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.