Game plan

Sara Sorribes Tormo v Pauline Parmentier

Every number combines what Sara Sorribes Tormo does well with what Pauline Parmentier allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Sara Sorribes Tormo wins, best of 3 52%90%: 17%–85% · best of 5: 52%

Serve points won 56.0% / 55.7% Sara / Pauline · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 52%serve 56.0% / 55.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Sara Sorribes Tormo's record against Pauline Parmentier's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Sara Sorribes Tormo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sara wins	v Pauline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	61%	73%	68.5%±10.2	57% ▲
Body	41%	51%	63%	56.9%±12.1	26% ▼
T	15%	59%	73%	64.6%±12.1	17% ▲

Optimal v Pauline Parmentier: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sara wins	v Pauline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	24%	58%	71%	64.0%±10.6	40% ▲
Body	52%	53%	60%	57.4%±13.8	37% ▼
T	24%	54%	67%	57.3%±12.3	23%

Optimal v Pauline Parmentier: +0.9±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Pauline Parmentier serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Pauline wins	v Sara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	62%	62%	57.6%±10.5	47%
Body	26%	64%	51%	57.9%±11.8	10% ▼
T	28%	67%	60%	59.8%±12.4	43% ▲

Optimal v Sara Sorribes Tormo: +0.7±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Pauline wins	v Sara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	67%	60%	62.1%±11.1	51% ▲
Body	18%	61%	55%	59.0%±13.0	18%
T	46%	65%	57%	57.4%±11.4	31% ▼

Optimal v Sara Sorribes Tormo: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Sara Sorribes Tormo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pauline	Value
FH through the middle	55%	+4.2	+3.8	−0.4	+7.6±2.8
FH down the line	19%	+1.5	+2.0	−0.8	+2.7±4.2
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	+3.1	+1.7	+10.2±4.0
FH slice through the middle	8%	−6.7	+0.1	−0.1	−6.7±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	+0.1	±0.0	−6.6±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.0±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (518 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pauline	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	+2.4	−2.7	+5.8±2.6
BH crosscourt	22%	+7.7	+4.0	−5.0	+6.7±3.4
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+3.2	−0.6	+4.8±4.1
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	+1.9	±0.0	−4.3±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−0.8	±0.0	−5.0±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (530 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pauline	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.2	+1.6	−1.5	−3.0±3.0
FH crosscourt	27%	+0.5	±0.0	−0.4	+0.1±4.0
FH down the line	23%	−0.6	+1.9	−0.3	+1.0±4.4

Lean FH down the line: +2.2±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (113 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pauline	Value
FH inside-out	34%	+1.4	+0.7	−0.3	+1.7±3.6
FH through the middle	31%	−2.7	+2.4	−1.5	−1.8±2.6
BH through the middle	18%	−2.6	+1.7	−1.0	−1.9±2.7
BH crosscourt	8%	+1.5	−0.1	+0.5	+1.9±3.4
BH down the line	3%	−0.5	−1.9	+0.7	−1.7±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (261 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Pauline Parmentier returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sara	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.2	−2.5	+1.5	+3.2±2.5
FH crosscourt	49%	+5.3	+0.2	+3.5	+9.0±3.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (59 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sara	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	−1.5	+1.6	+6.2±2.5
BH crosscourt	31%	+7.7	−0.4	+0.5	+7.8±3.2
BH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.2	−1.1	+0.1	−5.2±2.4
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	+0.9	−0.1	−5.4±2.0
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	+1.4	−0.6	+3.0±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (83 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+7.0±4.3	+3.1	+3.9
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.0±4.0	+3.2	+1.8
FH to the middle · rally	+4.9±2.9	+4.5	+0.4
FH to the middle · return	+4.8±3.5	+5.0	−0.2
BH to the middle · rally	+3.4±2.9	+2.4	+1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.3±4.7	+3.3	±0.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+1.7±3.4	+4.3	−2.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.3±4.7	+3.3	±0.0
BH to the middle · rally	+3.4±2.9	+2.4	+1.0
FH to the middle · return	+4.8±3.5	+5.0	−0.2
FH to the middle · rally	+4.9±2.9	+4.5	+0.4

Pauline Parmentier

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.3±5.2	+3.0	+0.3
FH to the middle · return	+0.6±3.5	−3.2	+3.8
BH to the middle · rally	−0.9±2.8	−0.3	−0.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.1±3.8	−0.1	−0.9
FH to the middle · rally	−2.1±3.0	−2.0	−0.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.1±4.7	−2.5	+0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.8±3.8	−0.8	−2.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.1±4.7	−2.5	+0.4
FH to the middle · rally	−2.1±3.0	−2.0	−0.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.1±3.8	−0.1	−0.9
BH to the middle · rally	−0.9±2.8	−0.3	−0.6

Against Pauline Parmentier-like opponents

Sara Sorribes Tormo v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	50.6%	48.1%