Game plan
Serena Williams v Mona Barthel
Every number combines what Serena Williams does well with what Mona Barthel allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Serena Williams's record against Mona Barthel's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: ±0.0 on serve, −1.0 on return vs expectation (2116 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Serena | Mona |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.34 ±0.04 better than 97% | +0.20 ±0.18 better than 84% |
| Shot selection | +0.47 ±0.05 better than 93% | +0.21 ±0.31 better than 68% |
| Execution | −0.04 ±0.27 better than 59% | −0.27 ±1.34 better than 45% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Serena Williams serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Serena wins | v Mona | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 70% | 62% | 66.4%±7.8 | 43% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 62% | 55% | 60.1%±10.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 42% | 79% | 73% | 83.4%±5.4 | 57% ▲ |
Optimal v Mona Barthel: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +10.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Serena wins | v Mona | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 45% | 75% | 66% | 75.4%±6.6 | 51% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 60% | 51% | 55.3%±11.8 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 49% | 70% | 59% | 65.0%±7.7 | 49% |
Optimal v Mona Barthel: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Mona Barthel serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Mona wins | v Serena | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 71% | 65% | 69.4%±7.7 | 53% ▲ |
| Body | 17% | 53% | 53% | 49.2%±10.5 | 2% ▼ |
| T | 45% | 67% | 66% | 65.1%±8.5 | 45% |
Optimal v Serena Williams: +1.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Mona wins | v Serena | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 57% | 66% | 56.9%±8.5 | 47% |
| Body | 12% | 51% | 57% | 51.7%±11.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 65% | 61% | 62.1%±8.4 | 53% ▲ |
Optimal v Serena Williams: +0.1±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Serena Williams returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Mona | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.2 | −2.6 | −1.0 | +0.5±2.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 36% | +5.3 | −1.6 | +2.9 | +6.6±3.4 |
| FH down the line | 11% | +1.5 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.7±3.9 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +5.2 | −3.4 | +1.7 | +3.5±2.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −6.7 | −0.7 | +1.2 | −6.2±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.8±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (2166 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Mona | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 48% | +6.0 | +0.3 | +1.7 | +8.0±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +7.7 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +9.4±2.9 |
| BH down the line | 12% | +2.2 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +4.1±4.1 |
| BH slice through the middle | 3% | −6.2 | −4.5 | −0.3 | −11.0±2.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.2 | −2.8 | −1.1 | −8.1±2.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1939 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Mona | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 43% | +0.5 | −0.5 | +2.0 | +2.0±3.8 |
| FH through the middle | 37% | −3.2 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −4.0±2.7 |
| FH down the line | 18% | −0.6 | +5.3 | +1.3 | +6.0±4.4 |
| BH inside-in | 1% | +2.0 | −1.4 | +1.6 | +2.2±3.4 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | −1.0 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −1.7±2.1 |
Lean FH down the line: +5.6±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (750 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Mona | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 51% | +1.5 | +0.9 | +1.6 | +4.0±2.9 |
| BH through the middle | 30% | −2.6 | −1.8 | −0.5 | −4.9±2.4 |
| BH down the line | 17% | −0.5 | +3.4 | −0.8 | +2.1±4.3 |
| FH inside-in | 1% | +0.7 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +3.4±4.1 |
| FH inside-out | 1% | +1.4 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +2.8±3.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (954 returns charted)
Mona Barthel returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Serena | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | +4.2 | +0.6 | −1.3 | +3.4±2.4 |
| FH down the line | 26% | +1.5 | +3.3 | −1.4 | +3.4±3.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 21% | +5.3 | −1.9 | −4.0 | −0.5±3.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −6.7 | −0.6 | +2.1 | −5.2±2.0 |
Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (121 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Serena | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 42% | +6.0 | +0.6 | −1.0 | +5.7±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +7.7 | −0.9 | −0.2 | +6.6±3.1 |
| BH down the line | 13% | +2.2 | −0.9 | −4.1 | −2.8±3.7 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 7% | −4.2 | +0.4 | −2.8 | −6.6±2.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 5% | −6.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −6.4±1.8 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (116 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Serena | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 49% | +1.5 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +1.8±2.9 |
| BH through the middle | 38% | −2.6 | −2.1 | −0.3 | −4.9±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 12% | −0.5 | +0.9 | −2.1 | −1.7±3.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.0±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Serena Williams
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · return | +6.7±4.8 | +4.0 | +2.7 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +4.6±4.6 | +0.2 | +4.4 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +4.3±4.1 | +0.1 | +4.2 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | +4.0±5.2 | −1.1 | +5.1 |
| BH to the middle · return | +2.4±3.1 | ±0.0 | +2.4 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +2.1±4.9 | ±0.0 | +2.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to the middle · return | −4.7±3.3 | −2.5 | −2.3 |
| FH to the middle · serve +1 | −2.9±3.5 | −2.4 | −0.5 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −1.7±3.0 | +1.1 | −2.8 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | +1.1±3.9 | −0.3 | +1.4 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +2.1±4.9 | ±0.0 | +2.1 |
Mona Barthel
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | +5.7±4.2 | +3.9 | +1.8 |
| FH to the middle · return | +2.7±3.3 | +3.4 | −0.7 |
| BH to their backhand · return | +0.6±4.1 | +0.9 | −0.3 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +0.4±4.9 | +1.4 | −0.9 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +0.4±2.9 | −1.6 | +2.0 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | +0.2±4.5 | −1.0 | +1.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −7.5±4.7 | −7.1 | −0.4 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −3.5±4.4 | −3.1 | −0.5 |
| BH to the middle · return | −1.6±3.1 | −0.3 | −1.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −1.4±4.0 | −0.6 | −0.8 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | ±0.0±5.4 | +1.6 | −1.6 |
Against Mona Barthel-like opponents
| Serena Williams v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 62.1% | 45.1% |
| Players most similar to Mona Barthel | 14 | 61.8% | 43.9% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Karolina Pliskova, Leylah Fernandez, Elise Mertens, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Sorana Cirstea, Victoria Azarenka, Veronika Kudermetova, Vera Zvonareva, Daniela Hantuchova, Nadia Petrova. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.