Game plan

Taylor Townsend v Alize Cornet

Every number combines what Taylor Townsend does well with what Alize Cornet allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Taylor Townsend wins, best of 3 63%90%: 25%–91% · best of 5: 66%

Serve points won 53.6% / 51.1% Taylor / Alize · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 65%serve 53.8% / 50.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Taylor Townsend's record against Alize Cornet's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −3.5 on serve, −5.5 on return vs expectation (131 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Taylor	Alize
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.07 better than 60%	−0.29 ±0.10 better than 9%
Shot selection	+0.29 ±0.38 better than 78%	−0.28 ±0.15 better than 22%
Execution	−0.66 ±0.65 better than 28%	+0.52 ±0.47 better than 79%
Points left on the table	3.14 ±0.14 lower than 6%	2.79 ±0.13 lower than 24%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Taylor Townsend −0.13, Alize Cornet +0.95. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Taylor Townsend serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Taylor wins	v Alize	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	64%	64%	61.7%±7.5	46% ▲
Body	24%	55%	55%	52.3%±8.6	8% ▼
T	41%	65%	65%	62.2%±7.7	46% ▲

Optimal v Alize Cornet: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Taylor wins	v Alize	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	69%	61%	64.5%±7.2	59% ▲
Body	16%	58%	58%	60.0%±9.7	16%
T	40%	62%	61%	58.3%±8.3	25% ▼

Optimal v Alize Cornet: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alize Cornet serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alize wins	v Taylor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	62%	67%	63.7%±6.7	59% ▲
Body	28%	57%	54%	53.7%±9.2	13% ▼
T	28%	64%	73%	68.8%±8.3	28%

Optimal v Taylor Townsend: +1.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alize wins	v Taylor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	67%	70%	71.3%±7.8	31%
Body	36%	60%	64%	67.9%±8.6	21% ▼
T	33%	58%	64%	57.9%±7.7	48% ▲

Optimal v Taylor Townsend: +0.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Taylor Townsend returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alize	Value
FH through the middle	31%	+4.2	−1.2	+1.1	+4.1±2.7
FH slice through the middle	25%	−6.7	−0.2	+0.4	−6.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+1.9	+0.1	+7.3±4.2
FH slice crosscourt	16%	−6.6	+2.4	−1.0	−5.2±2.6
FH down the line	8%	+1.5	−2.5	+2.1	+1.2±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.0±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (190 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alize	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.0	−0.2	+1.8	+7.7±2.5
BH slice through the middle	21%	−6.2	+2.4	−0.7	−4.5±2.5
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	−3.2	−0.4	+4.1±3.6
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	±0.0	+1.6	+3.8±4.5
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	+0.1	+0.6	−3.4±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +5.8±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (385 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alize	Value
FH crosscourt	49%	+0.5	+2.0	+3.6	+6.1±4.3
FH through the middle	34%	−3.2	−0.1	±0.0	−3.4±2.7
FH down the line	17%	−0.6	−1.2	+3.3	+1.6±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.0±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (41 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alize	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	−0.4	−0.9	−3.9±2.6
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.5	−3.4	+0.7	−1.2±3.7
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	+0.2	+2.0	+1.6±4.7
FH through the middle	6%	−2.7	−1.0	±0.0	−3.7±2.2

Lean BH down the line: +3.9±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Alize Cornet returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
FH through the middle	36%	+4.2	+2.4	−1.3	+5.3±2.7
FH down the line	24%	+1.5	+1.8	+2.3	+5.6±4.5
FH slice through the middle	19%	−6.7	+0.8	+0.6	−5.3±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+1.8	+1.2	−3.6±2.7
FH crosscourt	8%	+5.3	+2.1	±0.0	+7.4±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.0±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (473 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+0.1	−1.1	+5.0±2.5
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	+0.5	+0.9	+9.1±3.5
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	+2.9	−0.2	+4.9±4.7
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	−1.2	−1.2	−8.6±2.5
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	+0.4	−0.9	−13.0±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.9±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (385 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.2	+2.6	+0.4	−0.2±3.0
FH down the line	36%	−0.6	+3.0	+2.6	+5.0±5.2
FH crosscourt	10%	+0.5	±0.0	+0.8	+1.4±3.9
FH slice through the middle	8%	−15.2	+1.0	±0.0	−14.2±1.2

Lean FH down the line: +4.3±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	+1.0	−0.3	−1.9±2.7
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.5	−0.8	−0.2	+0.5±3.7
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	+2.7	+1.2	+3.4±4.7
FH through the middle	8%	−2.7	+0.9	+0.4	−1.4±2.4
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	+0.3	+2.6	+4.2±3.5

Lean BH down the line: +3.6±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Taylor Townsend

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+6.1±6.1	+4.0	+2.1
FH to their backhand · return	+5.5±5.6	+3.0	+2.5
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+5.5±6.3	+0.6	+4.8
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±4.6	±0.0	+2.4
FH to the middle · rally	+2.3±3.2	+0.7	+1.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.8±5.5	−0.6	+2.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−9.1±5.3	−5.4	−3.8
BH to their forehand · return	−5.1±5.8	−4.1	−0.9
FH to their backhand · return +1	−5.0±5.5	−3.6	−1.4
FH to their forehand · return +1	−4.9±5.3	−3.9	−1.0
BH to the middle · rally	−1.4±3.0	−2.1	+0.7

Alize Cornet

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+8.2±5.8	+1.9	+6.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	+6.2±5.4	+4.3	+1.9
FH to their backhand · return	+5.6±5.5	+4.7	+0.9
FH to the middle · return +1	+3.6±3.1	+2.9	+0.7
FH to the middle · return	+3.4±3.5	+2.5	+0.9
FH to their forehand · return	+3.1±4.4	±0.0	+3.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.4±4.6	+0.3	−3.7
FH to the middle · rally	−1.2±3.2	+0.4	−1.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.1±4.7	+1.1	−2.2
BH to their forehand · return	−1.1±5.8	±0.0	−1.1
BH to the middle · serve +1	−0.4±3.3	+0.6	−1.1

Against Alize Cornet-like opponents

Taylor Townsend v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.2%	40.8%
Players most similar to Alize Cornet	1	50.0%	35.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Marie Bouzkova, Viktorija Golubic, Emma Navarro, Ajla Tomljanovic, Lin Zhu, Caroline Wozniacki, Madison Brengle, Saisai Zheng, Agnieszka Radwanska, Elena Dementieva. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.