Game plan

Taylor Townsend v Johanna Konta

Every number combines what Taylor Townsend does well with what Johanna Konta allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Taylor Townsend wins, best of 3 40%90%: 18%–65% · best of 5: 37%

Serve points won 61.5% / 63.6% Taylor / Johanna · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 34%serve 61.0% / 64.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Taylor Townsend's record against Johanna Konta's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +5.2 on serve, +6.9 on return vs expectation (350 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Taylor	Johanna
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.07 better than 60%	+0.21 ±0.10 better than 87%
Shot selection	+0.29 ±0.38 better than 78%	−0.13 ±0.17 better than 34%
Execution	−0.66 ±0.65 better than 28%	+0.43 ±0.58 better than 77%
Points left on the table	3.14 ±0.14 lower than 6%	2.47 ±0.14 lower than 68%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Taylor Townsend serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Taylor wins	v Johanna	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	64%	67%	65.6%±7.9	36%
Body	24%	55%	59%	55.9%±9.6	8% ▼
T	41%	65%	71%	68.5%±7.2	56% ▲

Optimal v Johanna Konta: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Taylor wins	v Johanna	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	69%	63%	66.3%±7.3	59% ▲
Body	16%	58%	59%	61.5%±10.6	1% ▼
T	40%	62%	65%	62.2%±8.7	40%

Optimal v Johanna Konta: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Johanna Konta serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Johanna wins	v Taylor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	71%	67%	72.5%±6.2	62% ▲
Body	12%	62%	54%	59.3%±11.0	0% ▼
T	41%	72%	73%	76.8%±7.0	38% ▼

Optimal v Taylor Townsend: +1.1±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Johanna wins	v Taylor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	70%	70%	73.9%±7.1	51% ▼
Body	11%	53%	64%	61.2%±11.8	0% ▼
T	34%	69%	64%	68.4%±7.5	49% ▲

Optimal v Taylor Townsend: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Taylor Townsend returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
FH through the middle	31%	+4.2	−1.2	+2.2	+5.2±2.9
FH slice through the middle	25%	−6.7	−0.2	−1.6	−8.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+1.9	+2.0	+9.2±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	16%	−6.6	+2.4	−0.1	−4.3±2.4
FH down the line	8%	+1.5	−2.5	−0.9	−1.8±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.9±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (190 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.0	−0.2	+0.5	+6.3±2.6
BH slice through the middle	21%	−6.2	+2.4	−0.8	−4.6±2.5
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	−3.2	+1.0	+5.5±3.6
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	±0.0	+0.2	+2.4±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	+0.1	+0.5	−3.6±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +4.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (385 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
FH crosscourt	49%	+0.5	+2.0	−0.3	+2.2±4.3
FH through the middle	34%	−3.2	−0.1	+2.6	−0.8±2.8
FH down the line	17%	−0.6	−1.2	−1.9	−3.6±4.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (41 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	−0.4	+3.3	+0.3±2.7
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.5	−3.4	−0.4	−2.2±3.7
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	+0.2	+0.2	−0.1±4.8
FH through the middle	6%	−2.7	−1.0	+2.6	−1.1±2.3

Lean BH through the middle: +1.1±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Johanna Konta returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	−2.0	−1.3	+0.9±2.8
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.3	+3.3	±0.0	+8.7±4.3
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	−1.0	+2.3	+2.8±4.7
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+1.0	+0.6	−5.1±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	+0.4	+1.2	−5.0±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.2±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (277 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.0	+1.3	−1.1	+6.2±2.6
BH slice through the middle	22%	−6.2	−0.7	−1.2	−8.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	+1.7	+0.9	+10.3±3.6
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−1.7	−0.2	+0.3±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.2	−1.7	+0.2	−5.7±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +9.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
FH crosscourt	60%	+0.5	+0.9	+0.8	+2.2±4.5
FH through the middle	40%	−3.2	−1.2	+0.4	−3.9±2.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (62 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
BH through the middle	49%	−2.6	−0.8	−0.3	−3.6±2.7
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.5	−0.8	−0.2	+0.5±3.7
BH down the line	16%	−0.5	+0.9	+1.2	+1.6±4.8

Lean BH down the line: +2.9±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (158 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Taylor Townsend

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	+4.6±6.1	+6.0	−1.4
BH to the middle · return	+2.6±2.9	+0.4	+2.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.0±5.1	−0.7	+2.7
FH slice to the middle · return	+0.4±3.7	+0.8	−0.4
FH to the middle · return	+0.4±3.5	−1.2	+1.6
BH to their forehand · return	−0.1±5.9	±0.0	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return +1	−7.0±3.6	−4.3	−2.6
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.9±6.0	+0.9	−7.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	−5.9±5.5	−3.4	−2.5
FH to their backhand · return +1	−5.4±5.8	−4.0	−1.4
BH to the middle · serve +1	−5.0±3.6	−2.6	−2.4

Johanna Konta

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+6.9±5.9	+2.2	+4.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	+6.6±5.6	+0.8	+5.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+6.0±5.9	+2.9	+3.1
BH to the middle · serve +1	+4.1±3.6	+3.7	+0.5
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.9±6.9	+1.9	+1.9
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±4.2	−1.4	+3.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−6.4±3.3	−4.2	−2.2
FH to the middle · rally	−4.2±3.3	−2.6	−1.6
BH to the middle · rally	−4.2±3.1	−1.5	−2.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.7±4.1	−0.2	−3.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.6±5.1	−1.2	−2.4

Against Johanna Konta-like opponents

Taylor Townsend v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.2%	40.8%
Players most similar to Johanna Konta	2	63.2%	47.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Anna Kalinskaya, Xin Yu Wang, Barbora Krejcikova, Aryna Sabalenka, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Sofia Kenin, Olivia Gadecki, Aliaksandra Sasnovich, Petra Kvitova, Anett Kontaveit. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.