Game plan

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah v Anhelina Kalinina

Every number combines what Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah does well with what Anhelina Kalinina allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah wins, best of 3 52%90%: 15%–87% · best of 5: 52%

Serve points won 55.8% / 55.5% Tiantsoa / Anhelina · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 55%serve 56.1% / 55.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah's record against Anhelina Kalinina's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −6.3 on serve, −3.9 on return vs expectation (164 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Tiantsoa	Anhelina
Direction choice	−0.18 ±0.15 better than 21%	+0.24 ±0.10 better than 90%
Shot selection	+0.52 ±0.13 better than 95%	−0.03 ±0.17 better than 44%
Execution	−0.77 ±0.62 better than 25%	+0.47 ±0.64 better than 78%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tiantsoa wins	v Anhelina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	21%	72%	64%	70.1%±11.2	34% ▲
Body	31%	54%	58%	54.8%±10.6	16% ▼
T	48%	64%	62%	58.5%±10.3	50% ▲

Optimal v Anhelina Kalinina: +0.8±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +10.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tiantsoa wins	v Anhelina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	59%	63%	64%	61.1%±8.9	59%
Body	27%	53%	51%	47.8%±12.0	12% ▼
T	14%	68%	66%	70.0%±12.2	29% ▲

Optimal v Anhelina Kalinina: +1.4±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +11.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Anhelina Kalinina serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Anhelina wins	v Tiantsoa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	61%	63%	57.9%±10.1	39%
Body	27%	55%	55%	52.7%±11.5	12% ▼
T	34%	64%	66%	61.7%±11.6	49% ▲

Optimal v Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah: +0.4±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Anhelina wins	v Tiantsoa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	63%	64%	62.0%±10.0	59% ▲
Body	25%	51%	62%	56.7%±12.6	9% ▼
T	25%	62%	58%	56.3%±11.6	32% ▲

Optimal v Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Anhelina	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.2	+0.8	+1.1	+6.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	+0.4	+1.5	+7.2±4.2
FH slice through the middle	13%	−6.7	+0.8	±0.0	−5.9±2.1
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+1.9	+1.6	+5.0±4.1
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	+0.8	−0.8	−6.6±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (92 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Anhelina	Value
BH through the middle	55%	+6.0	−0.3	+0.1	+5.8±2.7
BH down the line	23%	+2.2	−1.9	−1.4	−1.1±4.3
BH crosscourt	16%	+7.7	−0.6	−0.9	+6.2±3.5
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	−0.8	−1.2	−8.2±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (111 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Anhelina	Value
FH through the middle	53%	−3.2	+0.3	−0.6	−3.4±3.0
FH crosscourt	48%	+0.5	−0.6	+1.2	+1.2±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (40 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Anhelina	Value
BH through the middle	62%	−2.6	−1.3	±0.0	−3.9±2.7
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	−0.5	+5.1	+6.0±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.2±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (45 returns charted)

Anhelina Kalinina returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tiantsoa	Value
FH through the middle	38%	+4.2	−2.3	−0.6	+1.2±3.0
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	+3.1	+0.8	+9.3±4.2
FH slice through the middle	16%	−6.7	+0.5	+0.2	−5.9±2.1
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	−1.3	+0.4	+0.6±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−6.6	+1.3	±0.0	−5.4±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (312 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tiantsoa	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+1.3	−0.8	+6.6±2.7
BH crosscourt	44%	+7.7	−0.2	+2.4	+9.9±3.5
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+3.6	−5.0	+0.8±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (270 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tiantsoa	Value
FH crosscourt	48%	+0.5	+0.4	+1.7	+2.6±4.3
FH through the middle	35%	−3.2	+3.0	−0.7	−0.8±2.9
FH down the line	17%	−0.6	+0.1	+0.6	+0.1±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.6±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (81 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tiantsoa	Value
BH crosscourt	58%	+1.5	−1.0	−1.5	−1.1±3.7
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	+1.4	−2.4	−3.6±2.8
BH down the line	6%	−0.5	+0.8	−0.7	−0.4±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.9±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (120 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+7.7±4.3	+1.7	+5.9
FH to their backhand · return +1	+6.8±4.2	+2.9	+3.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.8±4.7	+0.7	+1.0
FH to the middle · rally	+1.6±3.0	±0.0	+1.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.4±4.8	−0.5	+2.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.0±4.3	+1.3	−0.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.3±4.8	−0.5	−0.8
FH to the middle · return	−1.1±3.4	+0.7	−1.7
BH to the middle · rally	−1.0±2.8	−1.0	±0.0
FH to their backhand · return	+0.3±5.2	−0.7	+0.9
BH to the middle · return	+0.3±3.2	−0.9	+1.3

Anhelina Kalinina

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.8±4.3	+2.1	+1.8
BH to their forehand · return	+2.8±5.3	+2.0	+0.8
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.3±4.9	+1.4	±0.0
FH to their backhand · return +1	+0.3±4.3	−0.9	+1.2
BH to the middle · return	+0.1±3.1	+1.3	−1.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.2±4.2	−0.3	+0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	−2.9±2.8	−1.0	−1.9
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.8±4.1	−0.4	−1.4
BH to the middle · serve +1	−1.8±3.1	+0.9	−2.7
FH to the middle · rally	−1.1±2.5	−0.5	−0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.0±4.3	+0.3	−1.3

Against Anhelina Kalinina-like opponents

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.1%	49.0%
Players most similar to Anhelina Kalinina	1	50.0%	38.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Anna Blinkova, Linda Klimovicova, Magda Linette, Sara Bejlek, Varvara Gracheva, Yue Yuan, Anastasija Sevastova, Su Wei Hsieh, Anett Kontaveit, Elena Vesnina. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.