Game plan

Vera Zvonareva v Victoria Azarenka

Every number combines what Vera Zvonareva does well with what Victoria Azarenka allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Vera Zvonareva wins, best of 3 25%90%: 10%–46% · best of 5: 20%

Serve points won 52.9% / 58.0% Vera / Victoria · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 23%serve 52.4% / 57.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Vera Zvonareva's record against Victoria Azarenka's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: +11.9 on serve, −1.0 on return vs expectation (120 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Vera	Victoria
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.13 better than 54%	+0.06 ±0.05 better than 65%
Shot selection	+0.03 ±0.15 better than 47%	+0.21 ±0.07 better than 67%
Execution	+0.99 ±0.45 better than 92%	+0.96 ±0.29 better than 90%
Points left on the table	2.43 ±0.24 lower than 71%	2.42 ±0.07 lower than 74%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Vera Zvonareva serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Vera wins	v Victoria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	64%	65%	63.0%±8.0	43% ▲
Body	22%	54%	56%	52.4%±9.0	6% ▼
T	50%	73%	66%	71.9%±6.4	51%

Optimal v Victoria Azarenka: +0.7±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Vera wins	v Victoria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	61%	69%	64.1%±7.8	42%
Body	24%	56%	51%	50.8%±9.2	9% ▼
T	34%	65%	62%	62.7%±7.7	49% ▲

Optimal v Victoria Azarenka: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Victoria Azarenka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Victoria wins	v Vera	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	65%	64%	62.3%±6.7	41%
Body	18%	58%	52%	53.1%±9.4	3% ▼
T	41%	68%	71%	70.8%±7.7	56% ▲

Optimal v Vera Zvonareva: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Victoria wins	v Vera	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	67%	69%	69.8%±8.0	57% ▲
Body	21%	57%	56%	57.1%±9.5	6% ▼
T	37%	60%	64%	59.8%±7.7	37%

Optimal v Vera Zvonareva: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Vera Zvonareva returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victoria	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.2	+0.8	+1.3	+6.3±2.4
FH down the line	26%	+1.5	+5.0	+0.7	+7.3±4.0
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.3	+0.3	+1.0	+6.7±3.6
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+1.8	+0.9	−3.9±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−6.6	−0.7	+0.8	−6.5±2.3

Lean FH down the line: +2.2±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (209 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victoria	Value
BH through the middle	54%	+6.0	+1.0	+0.4	+7.4±2.3
BH crosscourt	21%	+7.7	+1.1	−0.1	+8.7±2.9
BH down the line	15%	+2.2	−1.0	+0.9	+2.0±3.7
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	+0.6	−1.5	−7.1±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.4±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (106 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victoria	Value
FH down the line	42%	−0.6	+1.3	−0.3	+0.5±4.6
FH through the middle	30%	−3.2	+1.4	−0.2	−2.0±2.4
FH crosscourt	28%	+0.5	+1.8	+1.2	+3.5±3.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (53 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victoria	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	+0.3	−1.2	−3.5±2.3
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.5	+1.2	+0.2	+2.9±3.1
BH down the line	14%	−0.5	−0.6	−1.2	−2.3±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (83 returns charted)

Victoria Azarenka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Vera	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.2	+2.0	+0.8	+6.9±2.4
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.3	+0.9	+2.3	+8.5±3.7
FH down the line	21%	+1.5	+1.7	+2.0	+5.2±4.0
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	−0.9	±0.0	−7.7±2.4
FH slice down the line	1%	−10.5	−0.2	±0.0	−10.7±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1610 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Vera	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	+1.0	+0.9	+8.0±2.3
BH crosscourt	28%	+7.7	+3.2	+0.6	+11.5±3.2
BH slice through the middle	12%	−6.2	−0.7	+0.2	−6.8±2.3
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	±0.0	+2.1	+4.3±4.5
BH slice down the line	4%	−12.5	−1.0	+0.9	−12.5±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1134 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Vera	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	−0.7	−1.0	−4.9±2.9
FH down the line	31%	−0.6	+3.1	+0.9	+3.5±4.9
FH crosscourt	31%	+0.5	+1.1	−1.1	+0.5±4.2
BH through the middle	1%	−1.0	+0.4	+0.2	−0.4±2.0

Lean FH down the line: +4.0±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (392 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Vera	Value
BH crosscourt	47%	+1.5	+0.4	+1.6	+3.5±3.2
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	+1.3	+0.2	−1.1±2.5
BH down the line	14%	−0.5	+5.2	+2.5	+7.3±5.0
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.7	+0.7	±0.0	−11.0±1.3
FH through the middle	1%	−2.7	−1.3	−1.0	−5.0±2.2

Lean BH down the line: +5.3±4.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (679 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Vera Zvonareva

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+5.1±5.0	+3.7	+1.5
FH to their backhand · return	+4.9±4.7	+4.2	+0.7
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.4±4.0	+2.0	+2.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.0±2.5	+2.7	+1.3
FH to the middle · return	+3.7±2.7	+2.6	+1.1
BH to their backhand · return +1	+3.5±3.7	+2.7	+0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−3.3±5.9	−5.0	+1.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.0±3.0	−1.5	+0.5
BH to the middle · serve +1	−0.5±2.8	+0.7	−1.2
BH to their forehand · rally	−0.4±4.0	−1.0	+0.6
BH to the middle · rally	−0.1±1.9	−0.9	+0.8

Victoria Azarenka

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+9.5±5.3	+4.3	+5.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+6.8±3.7	+1.6	+5.1
FH to their backhand · return	+6.3±4.9	+3.3	+3.0
FH to the middle · rally	+5.3±2.4	+1.0	+4.3
BH to their backhand · return	+4.1±3.7	+2.3	+1.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	+3.4±4.0	+3.2	+0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · serve +1	−0.8±3.0	−0.6	−0.2
BH to the middle · return +1	−0.5±3.0	−1.0	+0.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.4±4.0	−0.4	+0.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.4±4.3	+2.2	−1.8
BH to the middle · rally	+0.9±1.9	+0.4	+0.5

Against Victoria Azarenka-like opponents

Vera Zvonareva v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	56.6%	42.3%
Victoria Azarenka (charted head-to-head)	1	66.7%	40.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Karolina Pliskova, Leylah Fernandez, Belinda Bencic, Elise Mertens, Sorana Cirstea, Jaqueline Cristian, Linda Fruhvirtova, Alison Riske Amritraj, Mona Barthel. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head

Vera Zvonareva v Victoria Azarenka Indian Wells SF · Hard · 20 Mar 2009