RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 7 charted matches · 2004–2015

Alejandro Falla

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.3% ±3.4 raw 58.6% · tour 63.4% · 613 points
Return points won 35.0% ±3.5 raw 26.8% · tour 36.6% · 552 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.07 ±0.09 better than 39% of ATP · raw −0.08
Shot selection −0.23 ±0.27 better than 29% of ATP · raw −0.26
Execution −0.54 ±1.32 better than 43% of ATP · raw −1.04

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,850 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Alejandro Falla goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 153 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 42% 44.1%±8.9 47.6%
BH down the line 24% 38.0%±10.7 46.4%
BH through the middle 22% 44.8%±11.2 43.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 103 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 65% 44.0%±8.8 46.6%
FH through the middle 17% 29.7%±12.2 41.5%
FH down the line 17% 39.3%±13.0 44.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 99 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 22% 48.9%±12.7 52.7%
BH crosscourt 22% 49.6%±12.7 49.1%
FH through the middle 16% 45.6%±13.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 14% 45.2%±14.0 46.8%
BH down the line 13% 56.5%±14.2 48.3%
FH down the line 12% 47.8%±14.5 51.5%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 72 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 31% 48.1%±12.7 56.0%
BH through the middle 22% 40.1%±13.4 47.3%
FH down the line 14% 52.3%±15.0 53.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +5 How much less varied Alejandro Falla's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 60 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 23% 33% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 16% 11% 60% / 63%
T 60% 56% 69% / 75%

298 normal · 18 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 57% 65% / 73%
Body 10% 7% 55% / 63%
T 41% 36% 77% / 72%

249 normal · 42 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide24% 60.3%±7.8 n=76 37% ▲
Body16% 57.7%±9.1 n=50 3% ▼
T60% 58.0%±5.5 n=190 60%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 58.4%±6.1 n=147 47% ▼
Body9% 52.9%±10.9 n=27 0% ▼
T40% 61.4%±6.6 n=117 53% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.31).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.58 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.5±4.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (229 repeats, 364 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 13 28% −8.9±11.3
1stAd courtT 74 25% −2.6±7.0
1stAd courtWide 92 22% −5.0±6.2
1stDeuce courtBody 10 28% −9.2±11.6
1stDeuce courtT 71 17% −7.7±6.2
1stDeuce courtWide 98 20% −6.7±5.9
2ndAd courtBody 23 52% +3.1±11.3
2ndAd courtT 29 40% −9.0±10.5
2ndAd courtWide 29 47% −1.7±10.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 23 45% −4.3±11.2
2ndDeuce courtT 34 51% +1.7±10.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 52 41% −7.3±8.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alejandro Falla's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 7.4% · won 57% · −7.6±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 6.3% · won 55% · −9.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 9.9% · won 56% · −7.8±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 11.3% · won 50% · −14.6±9.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 11.7% · won 41% · +7.8±11.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 8.0% · won 48% · +3.1±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 9.1% · won 47% · +2.3±11.0 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 12.2% · won 47% · +2.0±10.0 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 9.4% · won 46% · +1.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 12.2% · won 45% · +0.4±10.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alejandro Falla wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH slice crosscourt return, mid → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 52% · +8.4±12.7 vs own baseline · +13.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (11/16)
  2. BH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 46% · +2.4±12.9 vs own baseline · −0.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (8/16)
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.2% · won 44% · ±0.0±12.8 vs own baseline · −5.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (7/16)
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 43% · −1.3±11.0 vs own baseline · −7.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (12/28)
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 42% · −1.7±12.1 vs own baseline · −8.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (7/16)
  6. BH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 42% · −2.1±12.4 vs own baseline · −8.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · rally+1.2160
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.0147
FH to their backhand · rally−1.4208
T 1st serve · deuce court−2.7190
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.8128

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · ad court−2.7140
FH to their backhand · rally−1.0190
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.5143
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.3129

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nicolas Jarry, Nick Kyrgios, Maxime Cressy

Charted matches