ATP · Right-handed · 1 charted matches · 2020–2020
Alexander Cozbinov
Shot expected value
The share of points Alexander Cozbinov goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle
position worth 59% to the average player · 49 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 39% | 53.6%±13.1 | 59.6% |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | 57.3%±13.6 | 53.2% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 44 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 59% | 41.9%±12.0 | 41.4% |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | 44.6%±14.9 | 46.9% |
Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle
position worth 58% to the average player · 40 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 40% | 62.9%±13.2 | 58.1% |
| BH crosscourt | 30% | 55.4%±14.5 | 53.7% |
Serve under pressure
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 68% | 40% ▼ | 70% / 73% |
| Body | 16% | 0% ▼ | 66% / 63% |
| T | 16% | 60% ▲ | 66% / 75% |
57 normal · 5 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 40% | 65% / 73% |
| Body | 44% | 20% ▼ | 64% / 63% |
| T | 11% | 40% ▲ | 67% / 72% |
45 normal · 10 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 66% | 60.5%±9.5 n=41 |
| Body | 15% | 58.8%±13.0 n=9 |
| T | 19% | 47.5%±12.7 n=12 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.13).
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 2 | 35% | −2.3±13.8 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 14 | 37% | +9.3±12.0 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 15 | 25% | −2.4±10.6 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 7 | 41% | +3.9±13.3 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 13 | 22% | −2.9±10.4 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 15 | 31% | +4.3±11.4 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 11 | 53% | +3.8±12.8 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 2 | 46% | −3.1±14.5 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 9 | 45% | −3.5±13.1 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 14 | 54% | +4.9±12.4 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 2 | 53% | +3.1±14.5 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 9 | 50% | +1.7±13.2 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Alexander Cozbinov's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Not enough data
Return
- Not enough data
Rally, consecutive own shots
- BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 14.5% · won 50% · +6.6±11.2 vs own baseline
- FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 12.7% · won 45% · +1.7±11.6 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 12.7% · won 45% · +1.7±11.6 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alexander Cozbinov wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- BH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.1% · won 52% · +8.2±12.1 vs own baseline · +4.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steve Darcis (13/21)
- BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 48% · +3.7±12.4 vs own baseline · +0.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steve Darcis (10/19)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 4.1% · won 46% · +1.6±12.1 vs own baseline · +3.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steve Darcis (10/21)
- FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 40% · −4.5±12.4 vs own baseline · −18.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steve Darcis (6/18)
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| BH to their backhand · rally | −3.8 | 121 |