RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2023–2026

Anastasia Zakharova

Shot expected value

The share of points Anastasia Zakharova goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 88 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 26% 45.2%±12.5 52.2%
BH crosscourt 22% 56.9%±13.0 50.9%
FH through the middle 20% 37.2%±12.9 45.8%
FH crosscourt 16% 60.4%±13.8 52.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 78 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 54% 41.2%±10.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 33.3%±11.7 43.3%
BH down the line 15% 51.1%±14.5 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 64 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 72% 49.0%±10.1 46.7%
FH down the line 19% 40.6%±14.3 44.9%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 57 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 23% 47.3%±14.3 53.0%
FH crosscourt 21% 45.2%±14.5 52.3%
BH crosscourt 19% 42.4%±14.6 50.8%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 34% 0% ▼ 70% / 66%
Body 42% 25% ▼ 55% / 57%
T 23% 75% ▲ 57% / 68%

146 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 41% ▼ 61% / 66%
Body 30% 23% 66% / 56%
T 21% 36% ▲ 58% / 64%

116 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide33% 60.5%±9.0 n=50
Body42% 54.4%±8.5 n=63
T25% 50.4%±10.0 n=37

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.24).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide48% 54.0%±8.4 n=66
Body29% 58.8%±9.7 n=40
T23% 49.9%±10.4 n=32

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.39).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: ±0.0±5.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (111 repeats, 167 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 17 47% +3.3±12.0
1stAd courtT 42 37% +1.5±9.4
1stAd courtWide 25 30% −4.8±10.1
1stDeuce courtBody 19 42% −0.2±11.6
1stDeuce courtT 25 21% −11.0±9.1
1stDeuce courtWide 56 28% −5.9±8.0
2ndAd courtBody 12 51% −3.8±12.7
2ndAd courtT 8 51% −3.7±13.3
2ndAd courtWide 29 44% −9.4±10.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 21 54% −0.9±11.5
2ndDeuce courtT 9 51% −5.2±13.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 21 53% −0.6±11.5

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Anastasia Zakharova wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 47% · +0.3±12.7 vs own baseline · +2.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Antonia Ruzic (3/7)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 46% · +0.2±13.1 vs own baseline · −2.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alina Charaeva (4/8)

Charted matches