RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 12 charted matches · 2019–2026

Caty Mcnally

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Rallies through the middle

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 54.7% ±3.4 raw 52.3% · tour 56.3% · 909 points
Return points won 43.2% ±3.4 raw 39.2% · tour 43.7% · 790 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.32 ±0.11 better than 5% of WTA · raw −0.31
Shot selection +0.05 ±0.33 better than 50% of WTA · raw +0.06
Execution −0.93 ±0.98 better than 20% of WTA · raw −0.87
Tactical adaptability +0.03 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 11 matches
Adaptation speed ±0.00 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.33 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 2% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,396 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Caty Mcnally goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 244 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 26% 36.3%±8.7 45.8%
FH down the line 21% 53.4%±9.7 52.2%
BH through the middle 15% 53.1%±10.9 46.2%
FH crosscourt 15% 58.1%±10.8 52.7%
BH slice through the middle 7% 43.2%±13.4 44.8%
BH down the line 5% 40.6%±14.3 50.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 235 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 27% 43.6%±8.9 43.3%
BH crosscourt 22% 38.8%±9.5 47.6%
BH slice through the middle 19% 32.6%±9.6 34.4%
BH down the line 11% 44.2%±12.0 46.8%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 40.2%±12.0 40.4%
BH slice down the line 6% 34.4%±13.6 31.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 212 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 37% 48.8%±8.3 46.7%
FH through the middle 34% 36.2%±8.2 41.3%
FH down the line 12% 42.2%±12.1 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 8% 24.6%±11.8 29.2%
FH slice crosscourt 7% 39.4%±13.8 31.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 128 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 30% 38.9%±10.5 42.7%
BH crosscourt 20% 41.3%±12.1 47.9%
BH slice through the middle 19% 42.5%±12.3 33.4%
BH slice crosscourt 17% 39.8%±12.4 38.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Caty Mcnally's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 130 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 50% 63% / 66%
Body 19% 15% 60% / 57%
T 38% 35% 62% / 68%

443 normal · 26 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 31% 38% 57% / 66%
Body 20% 19% 51% / 56%
T 49% 42% 58% / 64%

336 normal · 104 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 59.7%±5.3 n=204 59% ▲
Body19% 54.5%±7.6 n=87 13% ▼
T38% 50.5%±5.7 n=178 28% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide33% 47.0%±6.2 n=145 46% ▲
Body20% 49.8%±7.6 n=86 4% ▼
T48% 50.3%±5.3 n=209 50% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.75).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.38 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.8±6.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (292 repeats, 593 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 34 35% −9.3±9.8
1stAd courtT 100 27% −8.1±6.4
1stAd courtWide 102 33% −1.6±6.7
1stDeuce courtBody 48 48% +5.8±9.3
1stDeuce courtT 95 39% +6.8±7.2
1stDeuce courtWide 107 34% −0.3±6.6
2ndAd courtBody 52 49% −5.6±9.1
2ndAd courtT 31 55% −0.1±10.5
2ndAd courtWide 58 51% −2.3±8.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 66 50% −4.1±8.4
2ndDeuce courtT 53 52% −4.4±9.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 42 42% −11.9±9.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Caty Mcnally's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.0% · won 56% · −2.1±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 55% · −2.7±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 3.6% · won 53% · −5.2±11.7 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 51% · −7.2±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 4.5% · won 48% · −9.9±11.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 7.8% · won 49% · +5.9±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 8.5% · won 47% · +4.1±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 7.5% · won 40% · −2.8±11.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 7.2% · won 53% · +9.4±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 7.0% · won 53% · +8.6±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 50% · +6.3±11.0 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 6.8% · won 49% · +4.7±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 4.2% · won 44% · +0.4±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Caty Mcnally wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 49% · +4.5±12.9 vs own baseline · +9.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Darja Vidmanova (5/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 49% · +4.5±12.9 vs own baseline · +2.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.8% · won 44% · −0.4±12.8 vs own baseline · +0.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 0.8% · won 43% · −1.8±12.9 vs own baseline · −2.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 43% · −1.8±12.9 vs own baseline · −4.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.8% · won 40% · −4.3±12.8 vs own baseline · −12.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · rally+1.3214
FH to the middle · serve +1+1.3127
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.0204
FH to the middle · rally+0.9206
FH to their forehand · rally+0.9217

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · ad court−1.6153
FH to their backhand · return−0.9124
BH to the middle · return−0.5184
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.3162
BH to their forehand · rally−0.2143

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Elena Rybakina, Serena Williams, Rebecca Marino, Madison Keys, Karolina Pliskova

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Deep returns44%
Through the middle40%
Points at net14%
Backhand slice35%
Forehand share57%
T serves · ad48%
Serve & volley6%
Chipped returns20%
1st serve in65%
Wide serves · deuce43%
Run-around forehands8%
T serves · deuce38%
Unforced errors / shot10.6%
BH down the line20%
Avg rally length4.1
Point-ending shots22.7%
FH down the line27%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
Wide serves · ad33%

Plays most like

  1. Alison Van Uytvanck 2015–2022 plan v
  2. R – plan v
  3. Bianca Andreescu 2017–2026 plan v
  4. Karolina Muchova 2019–2026 plan v
  5. Jessica Pegula 2015–2026 plan v
  6. Emma Navarro 2019–2026 plan v
  7. Andrea Petkovic 2010–2022 plan v
  8. Jasmine Paolini 2016–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Justine Henin 1999–2010
  2. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010
  3. Amelie Mauresmo 1999–2009

Charted matches