RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2010–2015

Juan Monaco

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 59.5% ±3.9 raw 51.2% · tour 63.4% · 346 points
Return points won 37.1% ±3.8 raw 33.1% · tour 36.6% · 369 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.31 ±0.16 better than 5% of ATP · raw −0.32
Shot selection −0.11 ±0.37 better than 39% of ATP · raw −0.12
Execution −0.51 ±0.69 better than 44% of ATP · raw −0.72

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,164 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Juan Monaco goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 162 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 41.7%±8.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 36.3%±9.4 43.7%
FH inside-out 10% 38.8%±13.2 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 116 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 25% 45.5%±11.7 51.5%
BH crosscourt 22% 56.1%±12.0 49.1%
FH crosscourt 20% 61.7%±12.2 52.7%
FH through the middle 18% 42.4%±12.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 15% 49.6%±13.5 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 114 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 38% 46.0%±10.3 44.7%
FH crosscourt 36% 59.5%±10.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 26% 34.6%±11.1 41.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 101 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 50.2%±10.4 48.0%
BH through the middle 29% 44.4%±11.7 43.8%
BH slice through the middle 10% 26.7%±13.3 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −15 How much less varied Juan Monaco's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 52 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 25% 33% ▲ 64% / 73%
Body 12% 20% 62% / 63%
T 63% 47% ▼ 59% / 75%

164 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 72% 65% 57% / 73%
Body 12% 19% 65% / 63%
T 16% 16% 64% / 72%

130 normal · 37 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide26% 55.1%±9.4 n=46
Body13% 56.1%±11.2 n=23
T61% 51.9%±6.9 n=110

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.71).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide71% 47.2%±6.8 n=118
Body13% 55.7%±11.3 n=22
T16% 45.4%±10.8 n=27

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.15).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.7±9.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (159 repeats, 175 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 7 41% +3.8±13.3
1stAd courtT 36 29% +1.4±9.2
1stAd courtWide 58 26% −0.9±7.7
1stDeuce courtBody 12 31% −5.7±11.7
1stDeuce courtT 54 20% −5.4±7.1
1stDeuce courtWide 65 21% −6.0±6.9
2ndAd courtBody 23 52% +3.1±11.3
2ndAd courtT 14 50% +0.2±12.4
2ndAd courtWide 39 53% +4.5±9.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 22 55% +6.2±11.3
2ndDeuce courtT 26 41% −8.8±10.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 13 45% −2.9±12.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Juan Monaco's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 14.1% · won 54% · +0.3±11.5 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 12.8% · won 48% · −5.5±11.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.7% · won 55% · +6.3±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 55% · +6.5±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 8.2% · won 53% · +3.8±10.4 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 5.4% · won 42% · −6.4±11.5 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Juan Monaco wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 50% · +6.1±11.9 vs own baseline · +9.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Tommy Haas (3/8), Roger Federer (5/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.6% · won 46% · +2.8±12.3 vs own baseline · +6.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (3/8), Tommy Haas (5/7)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.0% · won 46% · +2.2±11.6 vs own baseline · −0.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Tommy Haas (2/6), Roger Federer (3/7)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.2% · won 42% · −1.4±12.9 vs own baseline · −4.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (3/7)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+1.8133
BH to their backhand · rally−0.8136
FH to their backhand · rally−1.5213

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−1.2184
FH to their backhand · rally+1.8135
BH to their backhand · rally+2.5175

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Charted matches