RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 1998–2000

Karol Kucera

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.6% ±3.6 raw 56.2% · tour 63.4% · 557 points
Return points won 40.8% ±3.7 raw 35.3% · tour 36.6% · 561 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.12 ±0.23 better than 85% of ATP · raw +0.12
Shot selection −0.61 ±0.36 better than 8% of ATP · raw −0.62
Execution −0.27 ±0.40 better than 54% of ATP · raw −0.45

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,480 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Karol Kucera goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 154 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 56% 43.9%±7.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 18% 43.2%±11.8 43.7%
BH down the line 6% 40.9%±14.8 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 68 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 54% 44.4%±10.8 46.6%
FH down the line 25% 35.0%±12.9 44.7%
FH through the middle 21% 30.3%±13.0 41.5%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 63 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 33% 51.7%±12.8 56.0%
BH crosscourt 30% 40.8%±12.9 49.5%
BH through the middle 19% 42.0%±14.4 47.3%
FH down the line 17% 47.4%±14.8 53.4%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 59 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 68% 41.0%±10.4 48.0%
BH through the middle 17% 45.9%±15.0 43.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +12 How much less varied Karol Kucera's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 64 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 32% 44% ▲ 69% / 73%
Body 6% 0% 62% / 63%
T 62% 56% 67% / 75%

269 normal · 16 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 60% ▲ 70% / 73%
Body 7% 4% 62% / 63%
T 46% 35% ▼ 73% / 72%

217 normal · 48 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide32% 61.5%±7.2 n=92 45% ▲
Body6% 56.7%±11.9 n=17 0% ▼
T62% 53.5%±5.7 n=176 55% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.23).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 53.6%±6.4 n=132 43% ▼
Body6% 50.8%±12.0 n=17 0% ▼
T44% 59.1%±6.7 n=116 57% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.30).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.44 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.9±4.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (256 repeats, 284 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 14 34% −2.7±11.8
1stAd courtT 55 32% +4.2±8.3
1stAd courtWide 90 32% +4.6±7.0
1stDeuce courtBody 21 35% −1.4±11.0
1stDeuce courtT 85 24% −1.1±6.5
1stDeuce courtWide 59 29% +2.2±7.9
2ndAd courtBody 42 41% −8.0±9.5
2ndAd courtT 25 41% −7.9±10.9
2ndAd courtWide 41 46% −2.6±9.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 34 50% +0.5±10.3
2ndDeuce courtT 52 45% −4.7±9.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 37 48% +0.3±10.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Karol Kucera's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 12.4% · won 46% · +5.9±11.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 19.9% · won 41% · +0.1±10.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 13.8% · won 43% · +1.8±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 24.4% · won 41% · −0.1±9.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 13.1% · won 38% · −3.3±11.4 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Karol Kucera wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 43% · −0.6±10.0 vs own baseline · −5.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (7/21), Pete Sampras (10/19)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · rally−2.0160
Wide 1st serve · ad court−2.4132
T 1st serve · deuce court−3.4176

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.5147
BH to their backhand · rally+0.8122
T 1st serve · deuce court+1.3152

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nicolas Jarry, Nick Kyrgios, Maxime Cressy

Charted matches