Klara Koukalova

Against an average opponent

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Klara Koukalova goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −5 How much less varied Klara Koukalova's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 61 break-point first serves.

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.5±6.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (139 repeats, 211 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Klara Koukalova's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Klara Koukalova wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

1. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 49% · +6.6±13.1 vs own baseline · +12.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Tsvetana Pironkova (4/8)
2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.0% · won 46% · +3.4±12.2 vs own baseline · +0.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Serena Williams (2/6), Tsvetana Pironkova (3/8)
3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.9% · won 45% · +2.1±12.4 vs own baseline · −1.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Tsvetana Pironkova (4/7)
4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 44% · +1.3±11.1 vs own baseline · −3.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Tsvetana Pironkova (2/6), Jarmila Gajdosova (3/6)
5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 44% · +1.2±12.2 vs own baseline · −2.7 vs tour on the same sequence
6. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 36% · −6.8±12.4 vs own baseline · −28.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Charted matches

• Kurumi Nara v Klara Koukalova L Hobart R32 · Hard · 11 Jan 2015
• Garbine Muguruza v Klara Koukalova L Hobart F · Hard · 10 Jan 2014
• Serena Williams v Klara Koukalova L Bastad SF · Clay · 18 Jul 2013
• Timea Babos v Klara Koukalova W Hobart R32 · Hard · 7 Jan 2013
• Tsvetana Pironkova v Klara Koukalova L Hobart R16 · Hard · 7 Jan 2013
• Klara Koukalova v Jarmila Gajdosova L Hobart SF · Hard · 14 Jan 2011