RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 7 charted matches · 2019–2024

Marc Andrea Huesler

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.0% ±3.5 raw 64.1% · tour 63.4% · 744 points
Return points won 33.9% ±3.5 raw 29.8% · tour 36.6% · 734 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.04 ±0.11 better than 68% of ATP · raw +0.04
Shot selection +0.33 ±0.34 better than 82% of ATP · raw +0.34
Execution −1.88 ±0.83 better than 5% of ATP · raw −1.72
Points left on the table 3.27 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 11% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,277 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Marc Andrea Huesler goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 135 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 56% 45.1%±8.4 46.6%
FH through the middle 19% 40.7%±12.0 41.5%
FH down the line 16% 35.6%±12.2 44.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 118 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 38.7%±9.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 28% 41.0%±11.1 43.7%
BH down the line 14% 38.6%±13.2 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 100 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 43.7%±10.3 52.7%
FH down the line 15% 46.6%±13.9 51.5%
BH crosscourt 13% 48.0%±14.3 49.1%
FH through the middle 12% 41.9%±14.3 47.0%
BH through the middle 12% 44.9%±14.5 46.8%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 87 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 31% 51.9%±12.0 46.9%
BH through the middle 25% 41.9%±12.5 43.0%
BH down the line 22% 48.3%±13.2 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 14% 38.0%±14.1 40.9%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +15 How much less varied Marc Andrea Huesler's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 50 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 54% 70% / 73%
Body 10% 0% ▼ 61% / 63%
T 43% 46% 70% / 75%

376 normal · 13 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 38% 71% / 73%
Body 6% 3% 61% / 63%
T 54% 59% 82% / 72%

317 normal · 37 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 60.5%±5.5 n=184 44% ▼
Body10% 59.9%±9.7 n=39 0% ▼
T43% 62.4%±5.7 n=166 56% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 65.0%±6.0 n=141 32% ▼
Body5% 63.9%±11.3 n=19 0% ▼
T55% 69.7%±5.1 n=194 68% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.41).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.47 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.8±2.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (296 repeats, 433 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 26 34% −2.9±10.4
1stAd courtT 98 26% −1.9±6.4
1stAd courtWide 115 21% −6.4±5.5
1stDeuce courtBody 29 44% +7.4±10.6
1stDeuce courtT 103 18% −6.6±5.5
1stDeuce courtWide 126 17% −9.8±5.0
2ndAd courtBody 44 47% −2.3±9.5
2ndAd courtT 45 57% +7.8±9.4
2ndAd courtWide 20 41% −7.3±11.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 50 46% −3.1±9.2
2ndDeuce courtT 25 51% +1.0±11.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 52 46% −2.4±9.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Marc Andrea Huesler's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 59% · −18.0±11.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 10.3% · won 51% · +15.9±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 9.3% · won 37% · +2.0±11.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 16.8% · won 39% · +1.1±8.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 8.7% · won 39% · +1.0±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 8.7% · won 39% · +1.0±10.8 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.0% · won 39% · +0.9±11.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 10.1% · won 36% · −1.6±10.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Marc Andrea Huesler wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.1% · won 46% · +4.5±13.0 vs own baseline · +5.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by John Millman (3/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 44% · +2.3±12.6 vs own baseline · −5.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by John Millman (5/9)
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.5% · won 43% · +1.6±12.2 vs own baseline · −3.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by John Millman (4/10)
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 42% · +0.7±12.0 vs own baseline · −5.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (2/7), Hubert Hurkacz (4/6)
  5. BH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 42% · +0.3±12.3 vs own baseline · −11.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by John Millman (2/6)
  6. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 41% · −0.8±10.4 vs own baseline · −8.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · ad court+1.9194
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.5141
BH to the middle · return+0.4131
FH to their backhand · rally+0.4219
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.2166

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · deuce court−1.9161
BH to their forehand · rally−1.4130
FH to their backhand · serve +1−1.4156
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.3178
FH to their backhand · rally−0.8212

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Hamad Medjedovic

Charted matches