RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2010–2013

Maria Kirilenko

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 55.2% ±3.9 raw 50.6% · tour 56.3% · 334 points
Return points won 43.7% ±3.9 raw 38.3% · tour 43.7% · 345 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Maria Kirilenko goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 145 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 49% 36.8%±8.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 41.3%±11.5 43.3%
BH slice through the middle 10% 33.9%±13.2 34.4%
BH down the line 9% 49.5%±14.3 46.8%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 39.0%±14.4 40.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 121 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 49.8%±9.1 46.7%
FH down the line 23% 37.5%±11.5 44.9%
FH through the middle 22% 41.0%±11.8 41.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 96 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 30% 43.8%±11.7 52.2%
FH crosscourt 24% 50.1%±12.5 52.7%
FH through the middle 18% 43.7%±13.4 45.8%
BH crosscourt 13% 53.7%±14.5 50.9%
BH through the middle 10% 47.5%±15.0 46.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 63 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 51% 43.1%±11.3 47.0%
FH through the middle 27% 44.0%±13.4 41.5%
FH down the line 22% 53.8%±14.1 46.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Maria Kirilenko's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 49 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 38% 63% / 66%
Body 23% 31% ▲ 62% / 57%
T 32% 31% 53% / 68%

156 normal · 16 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 32% 18% ▼ 70% / 66%
Body 17% 30% ▲ 52% / 56%
T 51% 52% 56% / 64%

125 normal · 33 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide44% 56.4%±7.9 n=76
Body24% 56.6%±9.7 n=41
T32% 45.5%±8.9 n=55

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.12).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide29% 56.4%±9.4 n=46
Body20% 46.2%±10.5 n=31
T51% 43.5%±7.7 n=81

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.08).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.1±6.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (107 repeats, 213 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 24 43% −1.0±11.1
1stAd courtT 62 29% −6.6±7.8
1stAd courtWide 35 37% +3.0±9.9
1stDeuce courtBody 22 46% +3.1±11.4
1stDeuce courtT 39 21% −10.9±8.1
1stDeuce courtWide 50 35% +1.2±8.8
2ndAd courtBody 19 52% −3.0±11.7
2ndAd courtT 9 47% −7.6±13.2
2ndAd courtWide 16 48% −5.6±12.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 34 55% +0.8±10.2
2ndDeuce courtT 29 61% +4.7±10.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 6 53% −0.6±13.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Maria Kirilenko's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 11.1% · won 49% · +2.4±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 10.6% · won 46% · −0.6±11.8 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 10.6% · won 44% · −2.6±11.8 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 10.6% · won 42% · −4.6±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 10.6% · won 42% · −4.6±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Maria Kirilenko wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 49% · +7.1±11.9 vs own baseline · +8.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Maria Sharapova (5/11)
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 50% · +8.1±12.9 vs own baseline · +18.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Flavia Pennetta (4/6), Maria Sharapova (5/7)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.0% · won 41% · −0.7±12.1 vs own baseline · −8.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Maria Sharapova (5/10)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.8% · won 40% · −1.1±12.4 vs own baseline · −4.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Maria Sharapova (5/12)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 38% · −4.1±11.4 vs own baseline · −15.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Flavia Pennetta (3/11), Maria Sharapova (3/8)
  6. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 37% · −4.9±12.3 vs own baseline · −19.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+2.1145
BH to their backhand · rally−2.0128

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally−1.1147
FH to their forehand · rally−0.9157

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Yulia Putintseva, Elsa Jacquemot, Caroline Wozniacki

Charted matches