RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2013–2014

Marinko Matosevic

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.6% ±4.0 raw 59.9% · tour 63.4% · 446 points
Return points won 35.5% ±4.0 raw 29.5% · tour 36.6% · 387 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Marinko Matosevic goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 41 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 47.5%±13.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 39% 38.2%±13.3 43.7%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 31 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 42% 46.8%±14.3 47.3%
FH crosscourt 32% 54.0%±15.0 56.0%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +4 How much less varied Marinko Matosevic's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 48 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 40% 71% / 73%
Body 12% 0% ▼ 70% / 63%
T 49% 60% ▲ 74% / 75%

220 normal · 10 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 42% 71% / 73%
Body 9% 11% 63% / 63%
T 42% 47% 69% / 72%

175 normal · 38 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 60.1%±7.4 n=90 52% ▲
Body12% 59.4%±10.7 n=27 0% ▼
T49% 55.3%±6.8 n=113 48% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.60).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 64.0%±6.8 n=103 44% ▼
Body9% 57.2%±11.6 n=19 0% ▼
T43% 64.0%±7.2 n=91 56% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.36).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.45 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −4.3±7.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (140 repeats, 291 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 11 42% +4.7±12.7
1stAd courtT 55 24% −4.0±7.6
1stAd courtWide 48 18% −9.1±7.2
1stDeuce courtBody 14 36% −0.3±11.9
1stDeuce courtT 47 18% −7.5±7.1
1stDeuce courtWide 69 23% −3.8±7.0
2ndAd courtBody 23 49% −0.7±11.3
2ndAd courtT 13 46% −3.3±12.5
2ndAd courtWide 33 48% +0.1±10.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 30 46% −2.8±10.6
2ndDeuce courtT 29 44% −5.8±10.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 15 50% +1.8±12.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Marinko Matosevic's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH direction unknown → FH direction unknown used 25.0% · won 56% · +3.9±11.6 vs own baseline

Charted matches