US Open · R128 · Hard · 26 Aug 2014
Roger Federer v Marinko Matosevic
118–89 in points · Roger Federer won
Why it went the way it did
Roger Federer won 19.2 more points than Marinko Matosevic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marinko Matosevic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.1, return execution −4.9, serve 1st execution −4.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roger Federer | Marinko Matosevic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −4.5 | −3.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −1.6 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −4.9 | −5.7 |
| Forehand | −1.1 | +2.4 | +0.1 | +1.4 | −0.8 | +2.9 | −7.1 | −5.0 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | +0.8 | +0.6 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −0.6 | +0.3 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −2.6 | −1.2 | −3.4 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.8 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −3.7 | −2.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −1.1 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +3.4 | −21.3 | −18.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Roger Federer | Marinko Matosevic | Net, Roger | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | −4.9 | +7.1 | |
| 2 | +1.3 | −5.1 | +6.4 | |
| 3 | −2.3 | −8.0 | +5.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roger Federer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% 87% | 8% 100% | 32% 63% |
| 2 | 25% 83% | 4% 0% | 71% 88% |
| 3 | 50% 63% | 3% 100% | 47% 83% |
Set to set +0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marinko Matosevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 57% | 6% 50% | 31% 55% |
| 2 | 53% 61% | 6% 50% | 41% 57% |
| 3 | 44% 68% | 8% 50% | 48% 54% |
Set to set −0.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roger Federer
9.8 points left on the table across 298 shots 3.30 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Marinko Matosevic
8.4 points left on the table across 287 shots 2.93 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts