RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2015–2019

Marius Copil

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 66.7% ±3.9 raw 67.2% · tour 63.4% · 390 points
Return points won 36.0% ±4.0 raw 34.9% · tour 36.6% · 378 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Marius Copil goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 70 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 27% 50.0%±13.2 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 27% 34.6%±12.5 42.5%
BH through the middle 19% 47.7%±14.3 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 14% 40.1%±14.7 35.1%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 51 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 33% 44.3%±13.4 46.9%
BH through the middle 24% 45.7%±14.5 43.0%
BH slice crosscourt 24% 34.9%±13.9 40.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 44 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 45% 33.3%±12.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 36% 34.2%±13.0 41.5%

Return +1: drive to your forehand side

position worth 41% to the average player · 43 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 51% 40.6%±12.5 45.3%
FH through the middle 35% 39.7%±13.6 39.4%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 33% ▼ 76% / 73%
Body 5% 33% ▲ 55% / 63%
T 51% 33% ▼ 79% / 75%

201 normal · 3 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 52% ▲ 73% / 73%
Body 9% 17% ▲ 66% / 63%
T 48% 30% ▼ 73% / 72%

163 normal · 23 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 68.0%±7.0 n=89 57% ▲
Body5% 53.3%±12.8 n=11 0% ▼
T51% 67.4%±6.7 n=104 43% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.003): serve wide more. Gap 1.1 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide44% 66.5%±7.4 n=81
Body10% 69.8%±10.8 n=19
T46% 70.6%±7.0 n=86

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.71).

Exploitability 0.52 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +6.1±5.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (153 repeats, 225 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 17 30% −7.0±11.0
1stAd courtT 41 36% +7.8±9.4
1stAd courtWide 61 29% +1.5±7.8
1stDeuce courtBody 12 38% +1.4±12.3
1stDeuce courtT 59 23% −2.0±7.3
1stDeuce courtWide 57 25% −1.7±7.7
2ndAd courtBody 19 40% −8.9±11.5
2ndAd courtT 10 39% −9.8±12.7
2ndAd courtWide 31 53% +4.9±10.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 25 50% +1.4±11.1
2ndDeuce courtT 32 50% +0.2±10.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 13 54% +6.4±12.5

Charted matches