Sofia · SF · Hard · 10 Feb 2018
Jozef Kovalik v Marius Copil
44–66 in points · Marius Copil won
Why it went the way it did
Marius Copil won 13.2 more points than Jozef Kovalik relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jozef Kovalik's biggest leaks: forehand execution −6.0, return execution −2.7, slice shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jozef Kovalik | Marius Copil | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.3 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.2 | −2.7 | −2.7 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.5 | −6.0 | −4.5 | −0.4 | +1.0 | +0.4 | +1.0 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.7 | −0.7 | −2.5 | +0.2 | −1.3 | +0.4 | −0.7 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −12.1 | −12.6 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +1.5 | +0.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Jozef Kovalik | Marius Copil | Net, Jozef | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.1 | −1.8 | −6.3 | |
| 2 | −4.5 | +2.4 | −6.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jozef Kovalik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 56% | 19% 43% | 36% 69% |
| 2 | 43% 42% | – | 57% 50% |
Set to set +3.87 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.88 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marius Copil serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 70% | 4% 100% | 52% 92% |
| 2 | 64% 71% | – | 36% 75% |
Within sets −0.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jozef Kovalik
4.2 points left on the table across 159 shots 2.63 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH slice down the line ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Marius Copil
4.9 points left on the table across 170 shots 2.90 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts