RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2014–2024

Matthew Ebden

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 60.5% ±3.9 raw 56.2% · tour 63.4% · 338 points
Return points won 34.5% ±3.9 raw 29.3% · tour 36.6% · 290 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Matthew Ebden goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 47 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 40% 35.2%±12.6 43.7%
BH crosscourt 34% 45.9%±13.7 47.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 44 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 41% 43.5%±13.2 52.7%
FH through the middle 23% 48.0%±15.0 47.0%
FH down the line 23% 47.7%±15.0 51.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 39 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 36% 45.0%±14.0 46.6%
FH through the middle 31% 41.6%±14.3 41.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 34 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 32% 40.0%±14.5 46.9%
BH through the middle 29% 38.7%±14.6 43.0%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 57% ▲ 69% / 73%
Body 14% 7% 58% / 63%
T 48% 36% ▼ 69% / 75%

166 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 36% ▼ 69% / 73%
Body 15% 24% ▲ 59% / 63%
T 41% 40% 74% / 72%

133 normal · 25 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide39% 55.4%±8.1 n=71
Body13% 57.1%±11.1 n=24
T47% 53.6%±7.6 n=85

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.83).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide43% 56.6%±8.2 n=68
Body16% 55.5%±10.9 n=26
T41% 59.9%±8.3 n=64

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.73).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.2±6.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (127 repeats, 199 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 16 39% +2.4±11.8
1stAd courtT 36 28% −0.1±9.1
1stAd courtWide 27 23% −4.1±9.2
1stDeuce courtBody 15 42% +5.5±12.1
1stDeuce courtT 47 18% −7.5±7.1
1stDeuce courtWide 36 28% +0.3±9.0
2ndAd courtBody 15 42% −7.6±12.1
2ndAd courtT 16 39% −10.6±11.8
2ndAd courtWide 25 48% −0.2±11.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 18 47% −1.7±11.9
2ndDeuce courtT 26 43% −7.0±10.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 12 41% −6.6±12.5

Charted matches