Sydney · R32 · Hard · 6 Jan 2014
Matthew Ebden v Julien Benneteau
34–58 in points · Julien Benneteau won
Why it went the way it did
Julien Benneteau won 13.4 more points than Matthew Ebden relative to what the serve alone predicted. Matthew Ebden's biggest leaks: forehand execution −1.9, serve 2nd execution −1.7, backhand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Matthew Ebden | Julien Benneteau | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.9 | −1.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +3.0 | +3.7 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.6 | +1.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +1.2 | +0.5 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +1.3 | −7.0 | −5.7 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +8.2 | +7.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Matthew Ebden | Julien Benneteau | Net, Matthew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.4 | +5.2 | −8.6 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | +2.5 | −4.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Matthew Ebden serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 63% | 18% 50% | 45% 30% |
| 2 | 48% 50% | – | 52% 53% |
Within sets +1.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Julien Benneteau serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 100% | 17% 67% | 56% 90% |
| 2 | 22% 20% | 35% 88% | 43% 80% |
Within sets +0.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Matthew Ebden
3.2 points left on the table across 127 shots 2.49 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH drop shot through the middle ×1; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Julien Benneteau
3.3 points left on the table across 129 shots 2.57 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.15 pts