RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 13 charted matches · 2024–2026

Mccartney Kessler

Archetype: Rarely serves the T · Patient builder

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 56.0% ±3.2 raw 53.7% · tour 56.3% · 876 points
Return points won 43.7% ±3.2 raw 40.2% · tour 43.7% · 844 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.11 ±0.13 better than 34% of WTA · raw −0.12
Shot selection +0.17 ±0.18 better than 61% of WTA · raw +0.15
Execution −0.30 ±0.47 better than 45% of WTA · raw −0.42
Tactical adaptability +0.05 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 11 matches
Adaptation speed +0.20 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.68 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 37% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,329 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Mccartney Kessler goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 251 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 35% 43.4%±7.8 46.7%
FH through the middle 26% 36.4%±8.5 41.3%
FH down the line 26% 39.5%±8.7 44.9%
FH slice crosscourt 6% 34.4%±13.0 31.9%
FH slice through the middle 6% 34.8%±13.4 29.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 233 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 21% 47.2%±9.9 52.7%
FH down the line 21% 43.3%±9.9 52.2%
BH through the middle 19% 50.4%±10.3 46.2%
BH crosscourt 18% 58.4%±10.3 50.9%
FH through the middle 15% 46.7%±11.0 45.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 227 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 37% 39.5%±7.9 43.3%
BH crosscourt 33% 39.5%±8.3 47.6%
BH down the line 19% 45.7%±10.4 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 26.3%±13.2 34.4%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 147 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 22% 45.7%±11.3 46.2%
FH crosscourt 18% 48.8%±12.1 52.3%
FH down the line 18% 46.9%±12.1 53.0%
FH through the middle 16% 48.4%±12.4 46.5%
BH crosscourt 14% 55.4%±12.9 50.8%
BH down the line 9% 54.9%±14.2 50.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +6 How much less varied Mccartney Kessler's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 94 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 57% 80% ▲ 60% / 66%
Body 18% 10% ▼ 58% / 57%
T 24% 10% ▼ 67% / 68%

433 normal · 20 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 54% 63% / 66%
Body 16% 27% ▲ 55% / 56%
T 29% 19% ▼ 66% / 64%

343 normal · 74 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide58% 52.7%±4.8 n=264 58%
Body18% 56.0%±7.8 n=81 3% ▼
T24% 58.0%±6.9 n=108 39% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.43).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide55% 53.0%±5.1 n=229 55%
Body18% 46.1%±8.0 n=76 3% ▼
T27% 55.6%±6.9 n=112 42% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.18).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.68 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.2±7.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (382 repeats, 462 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 44 45% +0.9±9.5
1stAd courtT 100 31% −4.3±6.7
1stAd courtWide 99 33% −1.6±6.8
1stDeuce courtBody 58 46% +3.7±8.7
1stDeuce courtT 56 29% −3.5±8.0
1stDeuce courtWide 155 33% −1.5±5.7
2ndAd courtBody 60 49% −5.6±8.7
2ndAd courtT 18 49% −6.1±11.9
2ndAd courtWide 79 52% −1.2±7.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 80 50% −4.1±7.8
2ndDeuce courtT 48 61% +5.3±9.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 35 48% −5.9±10.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Mccartney Kessler's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 3.3% · won 56% · +0.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 56% · −0.8±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 6.7% · won 55% · −1.2±9.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 53% · −3.3±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 5.5% · won 51% · −5.0±9.9 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 7.0% · won 50% · +6.7±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 7.8% · won 48% · +4.2±10.5 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, deep used 5.5% · won 42% · −1.0±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.8% · won 42% · −1.8±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 8.0% · won 40% · −3.0±10.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 51% · +4.1±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 50% · +3.1±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 4.8% · won 50% · +3.1±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 50% · +3.1±11.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.8% · won 49% · +1.6±10.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Mccartney Kessler wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.9% · won 49% · +3.1±12.4 vs own baseline · +13.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 47% · +1.9±12.5 vs own baseline · +2.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 46% · +0.9±12.1 vs own baseline · +3.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Iva Jovic (3/8)
  4. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.9% · won 46% · +0.8±12.4 vs own baseline · +4.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Anna Kalinskaya (4/7)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.2% · won 46% · +0.3±11.5 vs own baseline · −1.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Iva Jovic (2/8)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.2% · won 44% · −1.6±11.4 vs own baseline · −1.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · return+1.4187
FH to the middle · rally+0.8151
BH to the middle · rally+0.7192
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.4229
BH to their backhand · serve +1−0.1123

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−2.8169
FH to their backhand · rally−1.8180
BH to the middle · rally−1.5144
FH to the middle · return−1.5174
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.5228

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Sara Sorribes Tormo, Maja Chwalinska, Daria Saville, Daria Kasatkina, Caroline Wozniacki

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · deuce58%
Deep returns42%
Wide serves · ad55%
Through the middle34%
Points at net8%
FH down the line30%
Unforced errors / shot11.0%
1st serve in63%
Serve & volley1%
BH down the line20%
Point-ending shots23.6%
Forehand share53%
Chipped returns9%
Run-around forehands6%
Avg rally length4.0
Backhand slice6%
Drop shots / shot0.8%
T serves · ad27%
T serves · deuce24%

Plays most like

  1. Anna Kalinskaya 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Emma Raducanu 2018–2026 plan v
  3. Lin Zhu 2016–2025 plan v
  4. Iva Jovic 2024–2026 plan v
  5. Emma Navarro 2019–2026 plan v
  6. Shelby Rogers 2014–2024 plan v
  7. Anastasia Potapova 2017–2026 plan v
  8. Victoria Mboko 2022–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010
  2. Daniela Hantuchova 2002–2015
  3. Marion Bartoli 2003–2013

Charted matches