WTA · Left-handed · 9 charted matches · 2022–2026
Robin Montgomery
Archetype: Ad-court T server · Rallies through the middle
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Value per 100 shots
Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,733 shots.
Shot expected value
The share of points Robin Montgomery goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 50% to the average player · 206 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 23% | 49.9%±10.0 | 52.2% |
| BH through the middle | 22% | 47.3%±10.1 | 46.2% |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | 49.3%±10.4 | 52.7% |
| FH through the middle | 19% | 44.3%±10.6 | 45.8% |
| BH crosscourt | 11% | 48.1%±12.7 | 50.9% |
| BH down the line | 5% | 46.7%±15.0 | 50.0% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 43% to the average player · 122 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 44% | 49.1%±9.6 | 46.7% |
| FH through the middle | 36% | 41.0%±10.1 | 41.3% |
| FH down the line | 20% | 49.9%±12.4 | 44.9% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 45% to the average player · 118 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 42% | 57.9%±9.7 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 34% | 37.8%±10.3 | 43.3% |
| BH down the line | 14% | 38.8%±13.2 | 46.8% |
| BH slice through the middle | 9% | 31.9%±13.8 | 34.4% |
Return +1: drive to your middle
position worth 50% to the average player · 99 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 24% | 52.8%±12.4 | 46.2% |
| FH crosscourt | 24% | 55.6%±12.3 | 52.3% |
| FH through the middle | 20% | 43.3%±12.9 | 46.5% |
| BH crosscourt | 16% | 50.4%±13.7 | 50.8% |
| FH down the line | 10% | 42.0%±14.8 | 53.0% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index +7 How much less varied Robin Montgomery's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 60 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 33% | 18% ▼ | 72% / 66% |
| Body | 27% | 35% | 62% / 57% |
| T | 39% | 47% | 69% / 68% |
270 normal · 17 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 36% | 53% ▲ | 61% / 66% |
| Body | 22% | 16% | 60% / 56% |
| T | 42% | 30% ▼ | 73% / 64% |
219 normal · 43 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 32% | 55.5%±7.4 n=93 | 32% |
| Body | 28% | 57.5%±7.8 n=80 | 13% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 60.1%±6.7 n=114 | 55% ▲ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.66).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 39% | 55.9%±7.1 n=102 | 39% |
| Body | 21% | 58.8%±8.7 n=56 | 6% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 60.6%±6.9 n=104 | 55% ▲ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.67).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.
Exploitability 0.56 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.6±5.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (160 repeats, 371 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 34 | 57% | +12.6±10.2 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 55 | 37% | +1.7±8.6 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 67 | 35% | +0.9±8.0 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 56 | 39% | −3.3±8.7 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 52 | 26% | −5.7±8.0 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 85 | 31% | −3.4±7.1 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 56 | 54% | −1.0±8.8 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 26 | 46% | −9.5±10.9 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 30 | 50% | −3.4±10.6 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 43 | 57% | +2.2±9.5 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 11 | 56% | −0.4±12.8 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 44 | 53% | −0.9±9.5 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Robin Montgomery's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.3% · won 58% · −5.5±11.3 vs own baseline
- Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 6.3% · won 52% · −11.3±11.4 vs own baseline
Return
- vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 13.8% · won 54% · +2.8±11.0 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 10.6% · won 53% · +1.4±11.8 vs own baseline
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 6.4% · won 50% · +2.0±10.7 vs own baseline
- FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 6.6% · won 47% · −0.4±10.6 vs own baseline
- FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 4.4% · won 47% · −1.0±11.7 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.9% · won 46% · −1.2±10.5 vs own baseline
- BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 6.4% · won 46% · −1.3±10.7 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Robin Montgomery wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → BH through the middle used 1.4% · won 52% · +4.8±12.7 vs own baseline · +12.8 vs tour on the same sequence
- FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 51% · +3.6±12.9 vs own baseline · +1.9 vs tour on the same sequence
- FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.4% · won 49% · +2.4±12.7 vs own baseline · +4.6 vs tour on the same sequence
- BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.3% · won 46% · −1.3±12.8 vs own baseline · −4.8 vs tour on the same sequence
- FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 45% · −2.4±11.4 vs own baseline · −6.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marta Kostyuk (2/7), Elina Avanesyan (5/7)
- FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.9% · won 43% · −3.8±11.8 vs own baseline · −3.3 vs tour on the same sequence
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| FH to their backhand · rally | +1.3 | 203 |
| BH to the middle · return | +0.6 | 121 |
| FH to the middle · return | −0.7 | 148 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −1.8 | 123 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −2.0 | 123 |
Most exposed to
| BH to the middle · return | −0.3 | 145 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −0.3 | 123 |
| Wide 1st serve · deuce court | −0.2 | 133 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | ±0.0 | 152 |
| Wide 1st serve · ad court | +0.2 | 122 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Sara Sorribes Tormo, Maja Chwalinska, Daria Saville, Daria Kasatkina, Caroline Wozniacki
Tactical fingerprint
Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.
| Forehand share | 60% | |
| Through the middle | 35% | |
| Deep returns | 39% | |
| Unforced errors / shot | 13.2% | |
| T serves · deuce | 40% | |
| Point-ending shots | 25.6% | |
| T serves · ad | 40% | |
| Serve & volley | 0% | |
| Drop shots / shot | 1.4% | |
| BH down the line | 19% | |
| FH down the line | 28% | |
| 1st serve in | 61% | |
| Wide serves · ad | 39% | |
| Backhand slice | 9% | |
| Chipped returns | 6% | |
| Run-around forehands | 3% | |
| Avg rally length | 3.8 | |
| Points at net | 4% | |
| Wide serves · deuce | 32% |
Plays most like
- Maya Joint 2024–2026 plan v
- Irina Camelia Begu 2015–2024 plan v
- Xiyu Wang 2019–2025 plan v
- Dominika Cibulkova 2009–2019 plan v
- Nao Hibino 2016–2025 plan v
- Shuai Zhang 2009–2026 plan v
- Bernarda Pera 2017–2025 plan v
- Lulu Sun 2022–2025 plan v
Closest from another era
- Dinara Safina 2007–2011
- Daniela Hantuchova 2002–2015
- Jelena Dokic 2000–2009
Charted matches
- Magda Linette v Robin Montgomery L Madrid R128 · Clay · 21 Apr 2026
- Marta Kostyuk v Robin Montgomery L Indian Wells R64 · Hard · 7 Mar 2025
- Jule Niemeier v Robin Montgomery W Indian Wells R128 · Hard · 5 Mar 2025
- Clara Tauson v Robin Montgomery L Auckland SF · Hard · 4 Jan 2025
- Bernarda Pera v Robin Montgomery W Auckland QF · Hard · 3 Jan 2025
- Nao Hibino v Robin Montgomery W Auckland R16 · Hard · 2 Jan 2025
- Mai Hontama v Robin Montgomery W Auckland R32 · Hard · 31 Dec 2024
- Elina Avanesyan v Robin Montgomery W Madrid R128 · Clay · 23 Apr 2024
- Coco Gauff v Robin Montgomery San Diego R32 · Hard · 11 Oct 2022