RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2002–2004

Sjeng Schalken

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.0% ±3.3 raw 62.0% · tour 63.4% · 744 points
Return points won 37.2% ±3.4 raw 30.6% · tour 36.6% · 700 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.09 ±0.29 better than 79% of ATP · raw +0.08
Shot selection −0.16 ±0.30 better than 32% of ATP · raw −0.18
Execution −0.07 ±1.08 better than 65% of ATP · raw −0.28
Points left on the table 2.39 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 74% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,425 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Sjeng Schalken goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 196 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 38% 44.8%±8.4 47.6%
BH down the line 26% 44.7%±9.8 46.4%
BH through the middle 18% 44.2%±10.9 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 46.2%±13.0 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 43.4%±14.9 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 185 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 56% 43.0%±7.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 18% 45.0%±11.1 41.5%
FH down the line 18% 35.1%±10.7 44.7%
FH down the line + approach 7% 66.2%±13.5 69.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 172 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 66% 48.0%±7.1 46.9%
FH down the line 16% 44.6%±11.9 44.8%
FH through the middle 13% 44.8%±12.5 41.4%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 135 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH down the line 38% 52.5%±9.7 46.5%
BH crosscourt 36% 51.6%±9.9 48.0%
BH through the middle 10% 49.3%±14.1 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 37.7%±13.9 42.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Sjeng Schalken's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 59 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 64% ▲ 72% / 73%
Body 10% 7% 57% / 63%
T 40% 29% ▼ 65% / 75%

357 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 53% 72% / 73%
Body 10% 11% 64% / 63%
T 36% 36% 66% / 72%

295 normal · 45 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 67.3%±5.2 n=189 64% ▲
Body9% 60.1%±10.0 n=35 0% ▼
T40% 61.8%±6.0 n=147 36% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.28).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 60.7%±5.5 n=185 67% ▲
Body10% 60.5%±10.1 n=34 0% ▼
T36% 56.3%±6.6 n=121 33% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.61).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.52 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −4.7±9.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (272 repeats, 427 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 16 31% −6.3±11.2
1stAd courtT 93 20% −8.2±5.9
1stAd courtWide 75 23% −4.2±6.8
1stDeuce courtBody 11 29% −7.4±11.7
1stDeuce courtT 118 19% −6.5±5.3
1stDeuce courtWide 87 24% −3.1±6.5
2ndAd courtBody 17 51% +1.3±12.0
2ndAd courtT 43 50% +1.1±9.6
2ndAd courtWide 84 50% +1.2±7.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 29 52% +3.0±10.7
2ndDeuce courtT 63 46% −3.6±8.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 45 46% −2.2±9.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Sjeng Schalken's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 65% · −2.9±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 63% · −4.8±11.0 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 57% · −10.5±11.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 52% · −16.1±11.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 13.4% · won 25% · −7.5±10.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 7.7% · won 54% · +4.5±9.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 8.5% · won 53% · +2.9±9.4 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 53% · +2.9±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 50% · +0.1±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 49% · −0.9±11.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Sjeng Schalken wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH down the line used 1.9% · won 56% · +5.6±10.7 vs own baseline · +12.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (19/30)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 0.9% · won 54% · +3.4±13.0 vs own baseline · +16.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (6/9)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH down the line used 0.9% · won 53% · +2.1±12.9 vs own baseline · +5.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (8/14)
  4. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 53% · +2.1±12.9 vs own baseline · +9.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (9/12)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 52% · +1.6±11.7 vs own baseline · +2.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Roddick (4/10), Pete Sampras (5/8)
  6. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 52% · +0.9±13.0 vs own baseline · +4.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · serve +1+0.6121
BH to their forehand · rally+0.3172
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.1189
FH to their forehand · rally±0.0305
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.4147

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · deuce court−2.2205
T 1st serve · ad court−1.3163
FH to their forehand · rally−1.2334
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.9133
BH to their backhand · rally−0.6137

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Hamad Medjedovic

Charted matches