RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 17 charted matches · 2022–2026

Solana Sierra

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Rallies through the middle

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 54.9% ±3.4 raw 52.6% · tour 56.3% · 1,003 points
Return points won 42.8% ±3.4 raw 40.3% · tour 43.7% · 1,000 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.29 ±0.07 better than 7% of WTA · raw −0.27
Shot selection −0.05 ±0.13 better than 41% of WTA · raw ±0.00
Execution −3.33 ±0.95 better than 1% of WTA · raw −3.03
Tactical adaptability +0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 16 matches
Adaptation speed −0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.85 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 20% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,790 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Solana Sierra goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 297 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 24% 38.7%±8.4 46.2%
FH crosscourt 21% 50.1%±9.1 52.7%
FH through the middle 20% 45.1%±9.3 45.8%
BH crosscourt 16% 43.6%±10.0 50.9%
FH down the line 10% 42.1%±11.4 52.2%
BH down the line 10% 51.0%±11.7 50.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 215 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 48.3%±7.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 40% 47.3%±7.9 43.3%
BH down the line 13% 47.6%±12.0 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 199 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 52% 45.0%±7.4 46.7%
FH through the middle 26% 39.3%±9.5 41.3%
FH down the line 18% 42.8%±10.9 44.9%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 173 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 21% 49.5%±10.9 46.2%
FH through the middle 21% 45.2%±10.9 46.5%
BH crosscourt 21% 46.7%±11.0 50.8%
FH crosscourt 19% 48.1%±11.3 52.3%
BH down the line 10% 57.1%±13.4 50.6%
FH down the line 8% 45.9%±14.1 53.0%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Solana Sierra's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 130 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 47% 65% / 66%
Body 22% 16% 60% / 57%
T 28% 38% ▲ 67% / 68%

487 normal · 32 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 34% 61% / 66%
Body 22% 20% 58% / 56%
T 40% 46% 56% / 64%

383 normal · 98 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 55.7%±4.8 n=260 65% ▲
Body21% 55.2%±6.9 n=111 6% ▼
T29% 54.7%±6.1 n=148 29%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.97).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide37% 49.3%±5.7 n=177 52% ▲
Body22% 50.8%±7.1 n=105 7% ▼
T41% 50.4%±5.4 n=199 41%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.94).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.24 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.3±4.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (334 repeats, 632 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 81 44% +0.4±7.8
1stAd courtT 121 37% +1.3±6.5
1stAd courtWide 102 35% +0.6±6.8
1stDeuce courtBody 96 32% −11.0±6.8
1stDeuce courtT 75 28% −3.9±7.2
1stDeuce courtWide 145 33% −1.3±5.8
2ndAd courtBody 81 45% −10.4±7.8
2ndAd courtT 27 54% −1.5±10.9
2ndAd courtWide 64 51% −2.4±8.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 126 55% +0.3±6.6
2ndDeuce courtT 32 59% +3.3±10.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 44 54% +0.5±9.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Solana Sierra's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 61% · +2.9±11.1 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 2.9% · won 61% · +2.9±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 60% · +1.4±10.8 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 58% · −0.1±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 57% · −1.4±11.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.0% · won 51% · +10.8±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs body serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.2% · won 48% · +7.9±11.5 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, deep used 4.2% · won 48% · +7.9±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.8% · won 48% · +7.8±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 7.3% · won 46% · +5.3±9.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 50% · +5.3±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 51% · +6.2±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 6.1% · won 49% · +4.7±9.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH through the middle used 5.6% · won 49% · +4.6±9.9 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 49% · +4.6±10.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Solana Sierra wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 54% · +9.3±12.8 vs own baseline · +14.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.9% · won 49% · +4.5±12.3 vs own baseline · +8.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 49% · +4.4±12.9 vs own baseline · +4.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 49% · +4.4±12.9 vs own baseline · +9.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 49% · +4.4±12.9 vs own baseline · +1.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 48% · +3.4±12.1 vs own baseline · +4.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Body 2nd serve · deuce court+0.8129
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.0148
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.2260
T 1st serve · ad court−1.2199
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.2177

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−1.8214
FH to the middle · return−0.6231
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.3169
Body 1st serve · deuce court−0.1132
FH to their backhand · rally−0.1178

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Linda Fruhvirtova, Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Linda Klimovicova, Nadia Podoroska

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle36%
Point-ending shots30.7%
Unforced errors / shot13.5%
Wide serves · deuce50%
T serves · ad41%
BH down the line22%
Chipped returns10%
Serve & volley0%
Deep returns32%
Drop shots / shot1.2%
Wide serves · ad37%
Backhand slice8%
1st serve in60%
Points at net5%
Run-around forehands2%
Avg rally length3.5
T serves · deuce29%
Forehand share49%
FH down the line20%

Plays most like

  1. Iva Jovic 2024–2026 plan v
  2. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 2024–2026 plan v
  3. Anett Kontaveit 2015–2023 plan v
  4. Shuai Zhang 2009–2026 plan v
  5. Elena Gabriela Ruse 2016–2026 plan v
  6. Anastasia Potapova 2017–2026 plan v
  7. Tereza Valentova 2025–2026 plan v
  8. Karolina Pliskova 2013–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Marion Bartoli 2003–2013
  2. Anastasia Myskina 2002–2006
  3. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010

Charted matches