RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2017–2019

Thomas Fabbiano

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.8% ±3.1 raw 68.3% · tour 63.4% · 859 points
Return points won 39.0% ±3.3 raw 36.0% · tour 36.6% · 848 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.03 ±0.22 better than 47% of ATP · raw −0.03
Shot selection +0.13 ±0.16 better than 68% of ATP · raw +0.15
Execution −0.87 ±0.66 better than 29% of ATP · raw −0.60
Points left on the table 2.35 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 78% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,826 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Thomas Fabbiano goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 201 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 47% 67.1%±7.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 26% 53.8%±9.7 43.7%
FH inside-out 11% 55.6%±12.6 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 47.1%±13.9 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 163 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 36% 59.9%±9.1 51.5%
FH crosscourt 33% 66.9%±9.0 52.7%
BH through the middle 12% 54.8%±13.1 46.8%
FH through the middle 9% 54.1%±14.1 47.0%
BH crosscourt 7% 51.0%±14.8 49.1%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 113 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 62.8%±9.9 56.0%
FH down the line 35% 67.3%±10.0 53.4%
BH through the middle 12% 58.9%±14.1 47.3%
FH through the middle 10% 56.3%±14.7 47.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 112 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 41% 39.9%±9.9 46.6%
FH through the middle 33% 42.6%±10.8 41.5%
FH down the line 26% 44.8%±11.7 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Thomas Fabbiano's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 60 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 34% 42% 69% / 73%
Body 27% 8% ▼ 70% / 63%
T 39% 50% ▲ 82% / 75%

441 normal · 12 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 40% 70% / 73%
Body 18% 19% 69% / 63%
T 42% 42% 70% / 72%

357 normal · 48 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide34% 65.4%±5.8 n=155 35%
Body26% 70.6%±6.1 n=120 13% ▼
T39% 73.6%±5.0 n=178 52% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.13).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 68.9%±5.5 n=163 53% ▲
Body18% 68.4%±7.6 n=72 5% ▼
T42% 63.6%±5.6 n=170 42%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.40).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.59 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.7±3.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (281 repeats, 563 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 26 39% +2.5±10.7
1stAd courtT 98 28% −0.4±6.5
1stAd courtWide 112 29% +1.8±6.3
1stDeuce courtBody 27 32% −5.1±10.1
1stDeuce courtT 131 14% −11.1±4.5
1stDeuce courtWide 96 26% −0.9±6.5
2ndAd courtBody 66 48% −1.7±8.4
2ndAd courtT 30 58% +8.7±10.5
2ndAd courtWide 72 53% +5.1±8.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 79 54% +4.8±7.9
2ndDeuce courtT 86 48% −1.5±7.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 25 46% −1.9±11.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Thomas Fabbiano's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 73% · +0.4±10.0 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 72% · −0.6±9.3 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.1% · won 72% · −1.3±9.8 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 72% · −1.3±9.2 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 71% · −2.1±10.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 8.5% · won 55% · +16.1±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 8.1% · won 35% · −4.4±11.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.8% · won 67% · +7.2±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 5.6% · won 66% · +6.0±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 7.0% · won 64% · +4.3±10.3 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 60% · −0.4±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 7.2% · won 55% · −5.1±10.5 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Thomas Fabbiano wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.4% · won 69% · +9.4±10.6 vs own baseline · +24.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sandro Ehrat (6/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out used 1.8% · won 67% · +7.5±10.1 vs own baseline · +17.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alexander Bublik (3/6), Dominic Thiem (7/10)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out used 1.0% · won 68% · +8.4±11.6 vs own baseline · +25.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Stefanos Tsitsipas (5/6)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 67% · +7.6±11.4 vs own baseline · +27.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Karim Mohamed Maamoun (6/8)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 67% · +7.7±12.3 vs own baseline · +31.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 67% · +7.7±12.3 vs own baseline · +25.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · serve +1+1.2174
BH to their backhand · rally+0.9180
FH to their forehand · rally+0.6253
Body 1st serve · deuce court+0.4120
FH to their backhand · rally+0.1277

Most exposed to

FH to the middle · return−2.2159
T 1st serve · deuce court−2.0246
T 1st serve · ad court−1.8147
FH to their forehand · rally−1.0157
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.6216

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roman Safiullin, Tomas Machac, Miomir Kecmanovic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Tommy Paul

Charted matches