RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2014–2019

Victor Estrella

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.2% ±3.9 raw 56.5% · tour 63.4% · 379 points
Return points won 36.0% ±3.8 raw 34.2% · tour 36.6% · 365 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.39 ±0.21 better than 3% of ATP · raw −0.38
Shot selection −1.61 ±0.19 better than 1% of ATP · raw −1.61
Execution −0.91 ±0.98 better than 27% of ATP · raw −0.82

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,017 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Victor Estrella goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 129 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 31% 50.8%±10.6 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 27% 38.2%±10.8 35.1%
BH slice down the line 16% 49.8%±12.8 37.1%
BH through the middle 9% 30.5%±13.4 43.7%
FH inside-out 9% 44.9%±14.5 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 108 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 39.6%±9.4 46.6%
FH through the middle 34% 39.1%±10.6 41.5%
FH down the line 16% 45.8%±13.5 44.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 99 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 34% 49.2%±11.2 52.7%
FH through the middle 31% 47.8%±11.5 47.0%
FH down the line 27% 45.3%±11.9 51.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 84 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 31% 37.9%±11.8 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 27% 37.3%±12.1 35.1%
FH inside-out 18% 55.8%±13.8 52.6%
BH slice down the line 13% 36.0%±14.2 35.8%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 24% 63% ▲ 69% / 73%
Body 16% 0% ▼ 55% / 63%
T 61% 38% ▼ 70% / 75%

190 normal · 8 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 26% ▼ 68% / 73%
Body 7% 11% 60% / 63%
T 49% 63% ▲ 56% / 72%

151 normal · 27 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide25% 60.4%±9.0 n=50
Body15% 57.6%±10.5 n=30
T60% 60.0%±6.6 n=118

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.88).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide42% 56.6%±8.0 n=74
Body7% 50.6%±12.5 n=13
T51% 50.3%±7.5 n=91

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.44).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −10.9±7.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (143 repeats, 223 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 12 34% −3.4±12.0
1stAd courtT 31 27% −1.1±9.3
1stAd courtWide 79 23% −4.1±6.6
1stDeuce courtBody 10 35% −1.7±12.4
1stDeuce courtT 61 30% +5.2±7.9
1stDeuce courtWide 53 27% −0.5±8.0
2ndAd courtBody 18 45% −3.9±11.8
2ndAd courtT 4 49% +0.1±14.1
2ndAd courtWide 25 50% +1.7±11.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 23 48% −0.5±11.3
2ndDeuce courtT 34 53% +3.3±10.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 13 50% +1.7±12.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Victor Estrella's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 11.9% · won 57% · −0.4±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 11.4% · won 45% · −12.8±11.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 7.8% · won 51% · +1.2±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 12.3% · won 49% · −0.5±10.2 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 7.4% · won 44% · −5.8±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Victor Estrella wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.6% · won 49% · +4.9±12.9 vs own baseline · +11.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Bernard Tomic (2/6), Marcelo Arevalo (7/10)
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 40% · −3.9±12.8 vs own baseline · −15.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Rafael Nadal (2/7), Thiago Monteiro (3/7)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally−0.2128
FH to their backhand · rally−2.0145
FH to the middle · rally−2.5128

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally+1.6189

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Charted matches