RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 13 charted matches · 2019–2026

Thiago Monteiro

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 67.2% ±2.9 raw 65.6% · tour 63.4% · 1,031 points
Return points won 33.6% ±3.0 raw 32.9% · tour 36.6% · 977 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.01 ±0.13 better than 56% of ATP · raw ±0.00
Shot selection −0.12 ±0.30 better than 36% of ATP · raw −0.11
Execution −0.36 ±0.78 better than 51% of ATP · raw −0.12
Tactical adaptability +0.06 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 13 matches
Adaptation speed +0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.77 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 33% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,809 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Thiago Monteiro goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 318 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 34% 49.6%±7.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 44.7%±8.7 43.7%
BH down the line 9% 46.4%±11.8 46.4%
FH inside-in 8% 56.7%±12.3 54.7%
BH slice down the line 7% 36.7%±12.2 37.1%
BH slice through the middle 6% 37.6%±12.6 35.1%
FH inside-out 6% 56.2%±13.2 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 42.2%±14.4 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 213 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 49.9%±7.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 23% 43.3%±9.7 41.5%
BH through the middle 9% 37.5%±12.8 43.1%
FH down the line 8% 52.6%±13.7 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 6% 27.8%±13.0 24.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 208 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 44% 57.2%±7.7 52.7%
FH down the line 18% 57.4%±10.7 51.5%
FH through the middle 16% 53.6%±11.3 47.0%
BH crosscourt 10% 45.9%±12.8 49.1%
BH through the middle 9% 44.5%±13.1 46.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 179 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 34% 43.3%±9.1 48.0%
BH through the middle 21% 50.5%±10.9 43.8%
BH down the line 16% 47.5%±11.7 46.5%
FH through the middle 6% 50.7%±15.0 46.1%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 38.1%±14.6 42.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Thiago Monteiro's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 84 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 35% 79% / 73%
Body 9% 12% 61% / 63%
T 53% 53% 71% / 75%

523 normal · 17 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 58% 69% ▲ 69% / 73%
Body 6% 10% 59% / 63%
T 36% 21% ▼ 80% / 72%

424 normal · 67 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 65.4%±5.1 n=208 52% ▲
Body9% 58.5%±9.2 n=48 0% ▼
T53% 62.6%±4.5 n=284 48% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.38).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide60% 67.2%±4.3 n=294 53% ▼
Body7% 61.3%±10.2 n=32 0% ▼
T34% 72.2%±5.3 n=165 47% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.61 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +4.5±4.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (400 repeats, 605 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 39 36% −0.6±9.5
1stAd courtT 162 24% −4.4±5.0
1stAd courtWide 115 21% −5.7±5.6
1stDeuce courtBody 35 42% +4.8±10.1
1stDeuce courtT 126 20% −5.5±5.2
1stDeuce courtWide 182 31% +3.6±5.2
2ndAd courtBody 19 47% −2.8±11.7
2ndAd courtT 69 46% −3.0±8.2
2ndAd courtWide 54 47% −1.3±9.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 44 55% +6.0±9.5
2ndDeuce courtT 32 43% −6.3±10.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 99 49% +1.1±7.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Thiago Monteiro's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 66% · −4.0±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 6.7% · won 67% · −3.5±8.3 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 2.5% · won 62% · −8.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 60% · −10.5±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 8.0% · won 61% · −9.5±8.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 6.1% · won 51% · +11.1±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.8% · won 47% · +7.2±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.5% · won 44% · +4.2±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.8% · won 43% · +3.3±11.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 4.8% · won 33% · −6.5±11.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 9.4% · won 55% · +5.7±8.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 54% · +4.7±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 8.1% · won 52% · +2.3±9.2 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH through the middle used 3.9% · won 52% · +3.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 51% · +1.1±10.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Thiago Monteiro wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.4% · won 60% · +10.2±11.0 vs own baseline · +15.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Pedro Sousa (5/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 58% · +8.0±10.2 vs own baseline · +10.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Dominic Thiem (8/12)
  3. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 55% · +4.7±12.5 vs own baseline · +16.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Kei Nishikori (4/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.8% · won 55% · +4.9±12.8 vs own baseline · +15.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 52% · +2.1±9.6 vs own baseline · +4.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Kei Nishikori (3/10), Aljaz Bedene (3/7)
  6. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.2% · won 52% · +2.0±11.5 vs own baseline · +7.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court+3.0294
T 1st serve · ad court+2.8165
BH to the middle · rally+2.2170
BH to the middle · return+1.0214
BH to their forehand · rally+0.8238

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · ad court−4.4183
BH to the middle · return−2.9186
T 1st serve · deuce court−2.4225
BH to their forehand · rally−1.6166
T 1st serve · ad court−0.9223

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nicolas Jarry, Nick Kyrgios, Maxime Cressy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · ad60%
Deep returns37%
Forehand share59%
Run-around forehands30%
T serves · deuce53%
1st serve in65%
Through the middle27%
Backhand slice23%
Drop shots / shot1.6%
Chipped returns14%
Avg rally length3.8
Point-ending shots22.7%
Unforced errors / shot9.5%
Serve & volley1%
Wide serves · deuce39%
T serves · ad34%
Points at net6%
BH down the line13%
FH down the line19%

Plays most like

  1. Pablo Cuevas 2015–2021 plan v
  2. Daniel Elahi Galan 2020–2025 plan v
  3. Cameron Norrie 2015–2026 plan v
  4. Juncheng Shang 2024–2026 plan v
  5. Cristian Garin 2018–2025 plan v
  6. Federico Delbonis 2013–2023 plan v
  7. Luciano Darderi 2022–2026 plan v
  8. Dusan Lajovic 2014–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Nicolas Massu 2000–2009
  2. Gaston Gaudio 2002–2005
  3. James Blake 2002–2011

Charted matches