RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2024–2025

Viktoriya Tomova

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 53.3% ±3.8 raw 48.8% · tour 56.3% · 385 points
Return points won 41.0% ±3.7 raw 37.2% · tour 43.7% · 406 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.21 ±0.07 better than 16% of WTA · raw −0.21
Shot selection −0.60 ±0.38 better than 8% of WTA · raw −0.60
Execution +1.02 ±0.97 better than 93% of WTA · raw +1.05

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,380 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Viktoriya Tomova goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 180 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 31% 41.3%±9.4 44.9%
FH crosscourt 28% 39.1%±9.6 46.7%
FH through the middle 17% 36.5%±11.2 41.3%
FH slice through the middle 12% 28.2%±11.4 29.2%
FH slice crosscourt 7% 35.6%±13.9 31.9%
FH slice down the line 6% 31.8%±13.8 24.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 179 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 38% 49.5%±8.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 34% 37.1%±8.9 43.3%
BH down the line 16% 45.6%±11.7 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 6% 31.9%±13.8 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 42.2%±14.6 40.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 121 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 28% 49.0%±11.2 52.2%
BH through the middle 19% 40.1%±12.3 46.2%
FH crosscourt 17% 46.4%±13.0 52.7%
BH crosscourt 15% 53.1%±13.3 50.9%
FH through the middle 12% 34.7%±13.2 45.8%
BH down the line 9% 45.2%±14.7 50.0%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 114 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 45.2%±10.5 47.9%
BH through the middle 35% 47.6%±10.6 42.7%
BH down the line 18% 42.3%±12.7 46.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Viktoriya Tomova's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 57 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 45% 62% / 66%
Body 30% 27% 52% / 57%
T 24% 27% 59% / 68%

186 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 48% 60% / 66%
Body 19% 28% ▲ 51% / 56%
T 37% 24% ▼ 53% / 64%

140 normal · 46 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide46% 58.0%±7.4 n=91
Body30% 46.4%±8.7 n=59
T24% 46.3%±9.3 n=47

Off equilibrium (p = 0.046): serve wide more. Gap 6.3 points per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide45% 47.3%±7.7 n=83
Body22% 44.6%±9.8 n=40
T34% 44.6%±8.5 n=63

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.86).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.6±3.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (127 repeats, 242 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 15 45% +0.9±12.2
1stAd courtT 64 30% −5.0±7.8
1stAd courtWide 42 38% +3.5±9.4
1stDeuce courtBody 26 48% +5.2±11.0
1stDeuce courtT 38 26% −6.2±8.7
1stDeuce courtWide 77 33% −1.1±7.5
2ndAd courtBody 24 53% −2.2±11.2
2ndAd courtT 18 49% −6.1±11.9
2ndAd courtWide 34 49% −5.0±10.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 33 48% −6.3±10.4
2ndDeuce courtT 9 48% −7.8±13.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 26 50% −3.5±11.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Viktoriya Tomova's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 28.2% · won 47% · −1.2±11.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 7.2% · won 53% · +8.3±10.5 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 7.9% · won 52% · +7.3±10.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 53% · +7.8±11.2 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.1% · won 47% · +2.1±11.5 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.7% · won 45% · ±0.0±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Viktoriya Tomova wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.7% · won 52% · +10.0±12.0 vs own baseline · +19.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Paula Badosa (7/9)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 49% · +6.7±12.7 vs own baseline · +10.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Paula Badosa (5/9)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 47% · +4.8±11.9 vs own baseline · +4.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Veronika Kudermetova (3/6)
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 46% · +3.4±10.9 vs own baseline · ±0.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Paula Badosa (6/10), Veronika Kudermetova (6/7)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.2% · won 46% · +4.2±13.0 vs own baseline · ±0.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Paula Badosa (4/9)
  6. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 45% · +3.3±12.5 vs own baseline · +4.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · rally+1.8148
BH to their backhand · rally+0.8156
FH to their backhand · rally+0.7185

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally−2.9210
FH to their backhand · rally−0.9124
FH to their forehand · rally−0.3189

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Yulia Putintseva, Elsa Jacquemot, Caroline Wozniacki

Charted matches