Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 13 Jan 2025
Viktoriya Tomova v Daria Kasatkina
38–62 in points · Daria Kasatkina won
Why it went the way it did
Daria Kasatkina won 11.7 more points than Viktoriya Tomova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Viktoriya Tomova's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, serve 2nd execution −1.7, touch execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Viktoriya Tomova | Daria Kasatkina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.2 | +2.7 | +2.6 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +4.1 | +4.1 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.1 | +1.6 | +2.3 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +0.7 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +1.6 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +7.0 | +8.3 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.3 | +0.7 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.6 | +0.2 | +3.5 | +3.1 | +1.2 | +0.2 | +13.4 | +14.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Viktoriya Tomova | Daria Kasatkina | Net, Viktoriya | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | +6.8 | −8.1 | |
| 2 | +4.4 | +7.9 | −3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Viktoriya Tomova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 60% | 33% 25% | 25% 17% |
| 2 | 63% 60% | 13% 0% | 25% 67% |
Within sets +1.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daria Kasatkina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 56% | 23% 100% | 36% 75% |
| 2 | 33% 60% | 10% 100% | 57% 65% |
Within sets −1.95 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Viktoriya Tomova
6.7 points left on the table across 255 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×19; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
Daria Kasatkina
4.7 points left on the table across 252 shots 1.85 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts