RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2016–2021

Yuichi Sugita

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 60.1% ±4.0 raw 59.1% · tour 63.4% · 323 points
Return points won 39.6% ±3.9 raw 38.0% · tour 36.6% · 371 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Yuichi Sugita goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 115 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 51.4%±9.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 30% 43.2%±11.0 43.7%
BH down the line 12% 44.9%±14.0 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 88 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 34% 69.1%±10.8 52.7%
BH crosscourt 20% 54.8%±13.3 49.1%
FH through the middle 17% 41.1%±13.7 47.0%
FH down the line 15% 52.4%±14.3 51.5%
BH through the middle 14% 51.1%±14.5 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 79 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 61% 40.2%±9.8 46.6%
FH through the middle 27% 44.6%±12.8 41.5%
FH down the line 13% 46.5%±15.0 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 64 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 47% 51.2%±11.6 48.0%
BH through the middle 33% 43.3%±12.7 43.8%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 28% 25% 65% / 73%
Body 4% 0% 62% / 63%
T 68% 75% 70% / 75%

160 normal · 8 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 82% ▲ 58% / 73%
Body 15% 4% ▼ 63% / 63%
T 33% 14% ▼ 69% / 72%

123 normal · 28 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide28% 60.0%±9.2 n=47
Body4% 58.4%±13.3 n=7
T68% 60.6%±6.7 n=114

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.98).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide58% 57.7%±7.5 n=88
Body13% 54.6%±11.7 n=19
T29% 57.3%±9.5 n=44

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.83).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.1±7.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (148 repeats, 161 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 8 34% −2.5±12.7
1stAd courtT 50 32% +3.7±8.6
1stAd courtWide 49 34% +7.2±8.8
1stDeuce courtBody 8 42% +5.4±13.2
1stDeuce courtT 48 21% −3.9±7.6
1stDeuce courtWide 54 23% −4.4±7.5
2ndAd courtBody 35 49% −0.4±10.2
2ndAd courtT 4 49% +0.1±14.1
2ndAd courtWide 26 51% +2.5±11.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 28 55% +5.6±10.8
2ndDeuce courtT 39 51% +0.9±9.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 10 49% +0.5±13.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Yuichi Sugita's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 24.5% · won 62% · −10.1±10.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 8.0% · won 62% · +5.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 8.7% · won 60% · +3.3±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 8.4% · won 59% · +2.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 10.5% · won 58% · +1.7±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 7.0% · won 50% · −6.7±11.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Yuichi Sugita wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.7% · won 60% · +11.0±12.5 vs own baseline · +31.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Janko Tipsarevic (10/14)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 53% · +3.6±12.1 vs own baseline · +8.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Janko Tipsarevic (11/15)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 53% · +4.0±13.0 vs own baseline · +11.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Janko Tipsarevic (9/14)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally−0.7132

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally+0.1121

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Charted matches