Wimbledon · SF · Grass · 4 Jul 1987
Chris Evert v Martina Navratilova
91–105 in points · Martina Navratilova won
Why it went the way it did
Martina Navratilova won 8.1 more points than Chris Evert relative to what the serve alone predicted. Chris Evert's biggest leaks: serve 1st shot selection −2.3, touch shot selection −1.9, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Chris Evert | Martina Navratilova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −2.3 | +3.4 | +1.2 | +0.1 | +3.4 | −0.4 | +3.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | −0.5 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.8 | +1.1 | −1.2 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +2.7 | +2.0 | +6.1 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +0.6 | +3.2 | +4.8 | +0.8 | +2.3 | +4.1 | +7.2 |
| Backhand | +1.1 | +3.5 | +2.0 | +6.6 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −0.6 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.2 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −4.1 | +1.1 | −2.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +1.7 | −1.3 | +1.0 | +10.9 | +10.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.9 | +0.1 | −2.0 | −0.4 | −1.4 | −0.7 | −2.6 |
| All shots | +2.5 | +0.2 | +10.3 | +13.0 | +1.0 | +4.8 | +15.2 | +21.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Chris Evert | Martina Navratilova | Net, Chris | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.8 | +9.3 | −5.5 | |
| 2 | +6.6 | +5.7 | +1.0 | |
| 3 | +2.5 | +6.1 | −3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Chris Evert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 53% | 21% 57% | 27% 44% |
| 2 | 49% 65% | 20% 63% | 32% 54% |
| 3 | 48% 47% | 16% 60% | 35% 82% |
Set to set +0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Martina Navratilova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 90% | 19% 80% | 44% 50% |
| 2 | 56% 68% | 3% 0% | 41% 50% |
| 3 | 30% 56% | 20% 67% | 50% 87% |
Set to set +0.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Chris Evert
10.9 points left on the table across 389 shots 2.80 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side hit FH crosscourt ×21; FH down the line rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
Martina Navratilova
15.7 points left on the table across 407 shots 3.85 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×5; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 1.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.65 pts