RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 25 charted matches · 1979–1989

Chris Evert

Archetype: Chip returner · Slice-heavy

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 58.4% ±2.9 raw 58.1% · tour 56.3% · 1,810 points
Return points won 47.2% ±3.0 raw 45.2% · tour 43.7% · 1,788 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.03 ±0.13 better than 50% of WTA · raw −0.02
Shot selection −0.21 ±0.17 better than 28% of WTA · raw −0.19
Execution +0.63 ±0.33 better than 83% of WTA · raw +0.76
Tactical adaptability −0.02 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 25 matches
Adaptation speed +0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.87 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 19% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 11,536 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Chris Evert goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 535 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 51% 56.5%±4.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 49.4%±7.2 43.3%
BH down the line 19% 48.6%±7.5 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 28.3%±11.4 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 39.1%±13.4 40.4%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 479 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 54% 52.4%±4.9 47.9%
BH through the middle 23% 41.5%±7.1 42.7%
BH down the line 14% 56.9%±8.8 46.7%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 40.8%±12.6 38.7%
BH slice through the middle 3% 38.5%±13.9 33.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 419 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 51% 57.2%±5.3 46.7%
FH down the line 21% 58.2%±7.7 44.9%
FH through the middle 20% 54.5%±8.0 41.3%
FH slice through the middle 2% 26.2%±13.2 29.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 373 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 51% 45.6%±5.7 47.0%
FH down the line 22% 47.9%±8.1 46.4%
FH through the middle 17% 45.5%±9.0 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 5% 39.1%±13.0 29.3%
FH slice down the line 4% 31.6%±12.9 25.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +8 How much less varied Chris Evert's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 207 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 63% ▲ 58% / 66%
Body 23% 24% 60% / 57%
T 27% 13% ▼ 68% / 68%

884 normal · 46 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 60% 58% / 66%
Body 21% 19% 61% / 56%
T 25% 20% 65% / 64%

696 normal · 161 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 57.2%±3.7 n=467 51%
Body23% 55.7%±5.2 n=218 8% ▼
T26% 61.0%±4.8 n=245 41% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.32).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide55% 55.4%±3.6 n=474 50% ▼
Body21% 60.7%±5.6 n=178 11% ▼
T24% 62.2%±5.2 n=205 39% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.09).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.50 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.5±5.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (826 repeats, 911 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 97 40% −3.6±7.2
1stAd courtT 152 38% +2.2±5.9
1stAd courtWide 259 37% +2.7±4.7
1stDeuce courtBody 108 45% +2.9±7.0
1stDeuce courtT 192 36% +3.7±5.3
1stDeuce courtWide 250 37% +2.5±4.7
2ndAd courtBody 106 64% +9.3±6.8
2ndAd courtT 34 62% +6.7±10.0
2ndAd courtWide 195 54% +0.7±5.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 136 56% +1.2±6.3
2ndDeuce courtT 71 60% +4.2±8.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 159 50% −3.4±6.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Chris Evert's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 68% · +6.6±9.4 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 66% · +4.8±8.6 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 64% · +3.0±8.3 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 62% · +0.9±9.0 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 3.0% · won 59% · −1.9±9.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.0% · won 60% · +12.0±9.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 5.4% · won 57% · +9.7±8.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line, mid used 2.9% · won 57% · +9.1±10.2 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 5.4% · won 54% · +6.5±8.4 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, short used 2.6% · won 55% · +7.9±10.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH down the line → FH down the line used 1.5% · won 62% · +8.4±9.2 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 59% · +5.3±7.0 vs own baseline
  3. BH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 64% · +9.6±10.2 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 6.2% · won 58% · +3.5±5.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.7% · won 59% · +4.4±6.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Chris Evert wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 63% · +8.7±7.1 vs own baseline · +11.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Martina Navratilova (64/98)
  2. FH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 63% · +8.9±10.1 vs own baseline · +10.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Martina Navratilova (25/36)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.5% · won 65% · +10.2±10.9 vs own baseline · +20.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Carling Bassett Seguso (6/7)
  4. T serve → BH slice through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 64% · +9.8±12.0 vs own baseline · +13.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Martina Navratilova (10/11)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 61% · +7.0±10.5 vs own baseline · +16.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (11/15)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH down the line used 0.7% · won 60% · +5.9±10.0 vs own baseline · +7.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · return+4.9150
BH to their backhand · return +1+3.3213
Body 1st serve · ad court+2.6178
FH to their backhand · return+2.0228
Body 1st serve · deuce court+1.7218

Most exposed to

BH slice to their forehand · return−8.1231
BH slice to their backhand · return−8.0199
BH slice to the middle · return−6.7500
BH slice to their forehand · rally−6.6596
BH slice to their forehand · return +1−5.3154

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length5.6
1st serve in74%
Wide serves · ad55%
Points at net13%
Wide serves · deuce50%
Chipped returns15%
BH down the line22%
Serve & volley0%
FH down the line29%
Backhand slice7%
Run-around forehands1%
Drop shots / shot0.5%
Forehand share50%
T serves · deuce26%
T serves · ad24%
Point-ending shots16.6%
Through the middle20%
Unforced errors / shot6.2%
Deep returns12%

Plays most like

  1. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario 1988–2001 plan v
  2. Martina Hingis 1996–2007 plan v
  3. Angelique Kerber 2011–2024 plan v
  4. Conchita Martinez 1993–2003 plan v
  5. Mary Pierce 1994–2005 plan v
  6. Sara Errani 2011–2025 plan v
  7. Jennifer Capriati 1990–2002 plan v
  8. Agnieszka Radwanska 2007–2018 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Martina Hingis 1996–2007
  2. Angelique Kerber 2011–2024
  3. Mary Pierce 1994–2005

Charted matches