Australian Open · QF · Hard · 26 Jan 1989
Martina Navratilova v Helena Sukova
112–110 in points · Helena Sukova won
Why it went the way it did
Martina Navratilova won 0.9 more points than Helena Sukova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Helena Sukova's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.3, return execution −3.1, serve 2nd execution −2.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Martina Navratilova | Helena Sukova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.6 | +1.6 | −2.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | −3.3 | −2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | +1.3 | −0.8 | +0.7 | +0.6 | +2.2 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.4 | +2.4 | −1.7 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −3.1 | −3.6 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.2 | −0.8 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −0.1 | +0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +1.0 | −1.7 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | +1.8 | +0.9 |
| Net | +0.2 | −1.4 | +0.8 | −0.4 | +0.9 | −0.8 | +3.0 | +3.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −2.1 | +0.7 | −1.5 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −1.9 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +3.4 | −4.7 | −0.8 | +2.5 | +0.9 | −5.0 | −1.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Martina Navratilova | Helena Sukova | Net, Martina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.4 | +0.9 | −6.2 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | −3.8 | +4.7 | |
| 3 | +3.7 | +1.3 | +2.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Martina Navratilova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 31% | 6% 0% | 47% 75% |
| 2 | 38% 80% | 12% 33% | 50% 69% |
| 3 | 56% 48% | 2% 100% | 42% 68% |
Set to set +3.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Helena Sukova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 67% | 13% 33% | 61% 86% |
| 2 | 23% 60% | 14% 67% | 64% 43% |
| 3 | 37% 54% | 6% 50% | 57% 54% |
Set to set +2.11 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Martina Navratilova
7.6 points left on the table across 152 shots 5.03 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH down the line ×3; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH down the line ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Helena Sukova
10.2 points left on the table across 209 shots 4.86 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.46 pts