Roland Garros · F · Clay · 5 Jun 1994
Sergi Bruguera v Alberto Berasategui
125–104 in points · Sergi Bruguera won
Why it went the way it did
Sergi Bruguera won 11.0 more points than Alberto Berasategui relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alberto Berasategui's biggest leaks: return execution −2.9, forehand execution −2.4, slice shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sergi Bruguera | Alberto Berasategui | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | −1.1 | −0.6 | −2.1 | −0.6 | −1.1 | +2.2 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.3 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.5 | +2.1 | +5.9 | +8.4 | +0.6 | +0.3 | −2.9 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +5.0 | −1.6 | +3.6 | −1.4 | +12.7 | −2.4 | +8.8 |
| Backhand | +1.4 | +1.1 | +5.1 | +7.6 | −0.1 | +1.0 | −1.1 | −0.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −4.6 | +0.8 | −3.8 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.6 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +3.6 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +1.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.9 | −1.8 | −2.5 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −1.6 |
| All shots | +2.4 | +2.0 | +11.4 | +15.8 | −1.6 | +10.5 | −4.2 | +4.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Sergi Bruguera | Alberto Berasategui | Net, Sergi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.0 | −0.6 | +5.6 | |
| 2 | +5.4 | +3.0 | +2.4 | |
| 3 | −0.9 | +3.5 | −4.4 | |
| 4 | +6.3 | −1.1 | +7.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sergi Bruguera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 81% | 24% 67% | 12% 100% |
| 2 | 58% 67% | 31% 64% | 11% 50% |
| 3 | 65% 45% | 9% 67% | 26% 67% |
| 4 | 50% 88% | 25% 50% | 25% 75% |
Set to set +2.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alberto Berasategui serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 57% | 23% 71% | 32% 50% |
| 2 | 47% 71% | 27% 50% | 27% 38% |
| 3 | 53% 50% | 20% 83% | 27% 88% |
| 4 | 44% 45% | 28% 57% | 28% 14% |
Set to set +0.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sergi Bruguera
13.0 points left on the table across 786 shots 1.65 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×18; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.75 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
Alberto Berasategui
19.2 points left on the table across 804 shots 2.39 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×45; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×23; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.06 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×53; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.87 pts