Alberto Berasategui

Against an average opponent

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,109 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Alberto Berasategui goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Serve under pressure

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +4.6±7.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (222 repeats, 103 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alberto Berasategui's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alberto Berasategui wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

1. FH inside-out → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 2.0% · won 53% · +5.0±11.5 vs own baseline · +6.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sergi Bruguera (13/24)
2. FH crosscourt → BH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 52% · +4.2±12.1 vs own baseline · +8.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marcelo Rios (12/21)
3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 1.4% · won 51% · +3.2±12.6 vs own baseline · +3.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sergi Bruguera (10/17)
4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 1.1% · won 42% · −5.4±12.9 vs own baseline · −17.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sergi Bruguera (4/14)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Charted matches

• Marcelo Rios v Alberto Berasategui Australian Open QF · Hard · 28 Jan 1998
• Sergi Bruguera v Alberto Berasategui L Roland Garros F · Clay · 5 Jun 1994
• Alberto Berasategui v Magnus Larsson W Roland Garros SF · Clay · 4 Jun 1994