Hamburg Masters · SF · Clay · 12 May 1996
Alex Corretja v Marcelo Rios
66–52 in points · Alex Corretja won
Why it went the way it did
Alex Corretja won 6.0 more points than Marcelo Rios relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marcelo Rios's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.3, net execution −1.4, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alex Corretja | Marcelo Rios | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | −0.2 | +1.6 | +1.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.1 | +2.0 | +1.7 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +2.8 | +2.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.3 | +3.8 | +5.5 | +1.6 | +0.9 | +1.6 | +4.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.7 | −2.3 | −1.5 |
| Slice | −0.7 | −4.7 | +3.9 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.6 | −2.0 |
| Net | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.4 | −1.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.9 | −4.2 | +12.7 | +7.6 | +1.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Alex Corretja | Marcelo Rios | Net, Alex | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.8 | −0.6 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | +4.8 | +2.1 | +2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alex Corretja serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 63% | 18% 57% | 39% 53% |
| 2 | 50% 69% | 15% 75% | 35% 67% |
Set to set +0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marcelo Rios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 45% | 11% 67% | 48% 38% |
| 2 | 44% 58% | 7% 100% | 48% 54% |
Within sets +1.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alex Corretja
9.4 points left on the table across 360 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
Marcelo Rios
7.9 points left on the table across 381 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH down the line ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts