RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 21 charted matches · 1995–2002

Alex Corretja

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.3% ±2.9 raw 60.2% · tour 63.4% · 2,089 points
Return points won 40.1% ±3.0 raw 38.3% · tour 36.6% · 1,912 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.07 ±0.11 better than 76% of ATP · raw +0.07
Shot selection −0.16 ±0.18 better than 33% of ATP · raw −0.16
Execution +0.38 ±0.51 better than 82% of ATP · raw +0.33
Tactical adaptability +0.06 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 21 matches
Adaptation speed +0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.48 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 63% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 11,699 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Alex Corretja goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,036 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 49.0%±4.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 15% 50.1%±6.2 43.7%
FH inside-out 12% 49.6%±6.8 51.8%
BH down the line 12% 50.9%±6.9 46.4%
FH inside-in 8% 50.9%±8.1 54.7%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 45.4%±8.3 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 4% 39.0%±10.4 35.1%
FH through the middle 3% 43.8%±11.8 45.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 709 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 55.5%±4.6 48.0%
BH through the middle 13% 48.0%±7.7 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 12% 44.5%±8.1 42.1%
BH down the line 11% 48.8%±8.3 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 6% 43.1%±10.1 35.1%
FH inside-out 6% 57.3%±10.3 52.6%
FH inside-in 5% 65.8%±10.7 54.3%
BH slice down the line 3% 33.7%±12.0 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 557 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 37% 48.4%±5.5 46.6%
FH down the line 32% 45.2%±5.8 44.7%
FH through the middle 24% 40.1%±6.5 41.5%
FH down the line + approach 4% 77.2%±10.9 69.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 434 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 31% 52.5%±6.6 51.5%
FH crosscourt 30% 46.7%±6.7 52.7%
FH through the middle 14% 37.1%±8.8 47.0%
BH crosscourt 9% 52.2%±10.7 49.1%
BH through the middle 7% 49.7%±11.5 46.8%
BH down the line 3% 53.5%±14.3 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 3% 64.9%±14.1 70.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +4 How much less varied Alex Corretja's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 216 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 55% ▲ 68% / 73%
Body 19% 18% 59% / 63%
T 41% 27% ▼ 74% / 75%

1,018 normal · 49 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 58% 64% 69% / 73%
Body 12% 14% 64% / 63%
T 30% 22% ▼ 67% / 72%

821 normal · 167 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 58.1%±3.7 n=442 42%
Body19% 55.4%±5.4 n=198 5% ▼
T40% 61.8%±3.7 n=427 53% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.17).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide59% 63.2%±3.2 n=585 72% ▲
Body12% 58.7%±6.5 n=123 0% ▼
T28% 55.4%±4.6 n=280 28%

Off equilibrium (p = 0.045): serve wide more. Gap 2.8 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.70 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.8±3.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (859 repeats, 1,154 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 68 33% −4.2±7.8
1stAd courtT 107 26% −2.2±6.2
1stAd courtWide 362 32% +4.4±3.9
1stDeuce courtBody 92 39% +1.8±7.2
1stDeuce courtT 222 26% +0.5±4.5
1stDeuce courtWide 260 28% +0.8±4.3
2ndAd courtBody 50 56% +6.6±9.1
2ndAd courtT 22 57% +8.0±11.3
2ndAd courtWide 290 48% −0.4±4.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 122 50% +1.5±6.7
2ndDeuce courtT 134 58% +8.2±6.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 128 48% −0.3±6.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alex Corretja's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 65% · +2.9±7.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-out used 4.1% · won 63% · +1.2±7.9 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 60% · −1.7±8.7 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 57% · −4.8±9.6 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 56% · −5.5±9.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 7.9% · won 51% · +12.0±7.1 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.3% · won 51% · +12.3±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line, mid used 2.7% · won 49% · +10.6±10.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.7% · won 47% · +8.0±9.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 2.7% · won 45% · +5.7±10.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 61% · +11.4±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 59% · +9.4±9.7 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 1.4% · won 59% · +9.1±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 56% · +5.5±7.8 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 55% · +4.8±7.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alex Corretja wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 60% · +9.4±9.8 vs own baseline · +16.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (7/11), Carlos Moya (5/7)
  2. Wide serve → BH slice crosscourt return, mid → FH inside-out used 0.3% · won 63% · +13.2±11.8 vs own baseline · +21.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Pete Sampras (9/9)
  3. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 61% · +10.5±11.1 vs own baseline · +21.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (4/7)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.5% · won 60% · +9.7±10.8 vs own baseline · +14.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Carlos Moya (5/10)
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 60% · +9.7±11.3 vs own baseline · +20.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marcelo Rios (18/26)
  6. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.5% · won 59% · +9.0±10.9 vs own baseline · +13.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to their backhand · return+2.8165
BH slice to the middle · return+1.6182
BH to their backhand · serve +1+1.5257
BH slice to the middle · rally+1.3125
BH to their backhand · return +1+1.2174

Most exposed to

BH slice to their backhand · return−3.0187
FH to their backhand · return−2.7185
FH to their forehand · serve +1−1.8260
BH slice to the middle · return−1.5148
FH to their forehand · return−1.4154

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, Richard Gasquet, Casper Ruud, Novak Djokovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length4.8
Wide serves · ad59%
Chipped returns28%
Run-around forehands30%
FH down the line35%
BH down the line21%
Backhand slice22%
Points at net12%
Forehand share53%
Serve & volley5%
Wide serves · deuce41%
Drop shots / shot0.7%
T serves · deuce40%
Point-ending shots18.4%
Unforced errors / shot7.6%
1st serve in56%
Through the middle19%
Deep returns16%
T serves · ad28%

Plays most like

  1. Sergi Bruguera 1990–1997 plan v
  2. Magnus Norman 2000–2001 plan v
  3. Carlos Moya 1997–2007 plan v
  4. Albert Costa 1996–2002 plan v
  5. Ivan Lendl 1979–1994 plan v
  6. Guillermo Garcia Lopez 2015–2019 plan v
  7. David Nalbandian 2002–2012 plan v
  8. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Guillermo Garcia Lopez 2015–2019
  2. Kei Nishikori 2011–2025
  3. Andy Murray 2005–2024

Charted matches