Canada Masters · SF · Hard · 24 Aug 1996
Wayne Ferreira v Todd Martin
101–90 in points · Wayne Ferreira won
Why it went the way it did
Wayne Ferreira won 5.4 more points than Todd Martin relative to what the serve alone predicted. Todd Martin's biggest leaks: return execution −5.5, backhand execution −3.8, forehand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Wayne Ferreira | Todd Martin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −1.2 | −1.8 | −2.7 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −5.5 | −5.0 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.8 | +3.7 | +5.8 | −0.2 | +1.4 | −1.5 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −3.8 | −2.4 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −2.5 | ±0.0 | −2.9 | +0.4 | −0.9 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +1.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −2.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.3 | −2.9 | +0.5 | −2.2 | +0.8 | +1.5 | −9.8 | −7.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Wayne Ferreira | Todd Martin | Net, Wayne | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.0 | −0.7 | +1.6 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | −2.7 | +1.5 | |
| 3 | −2.0 | −4.2 | +2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Wayne Ferreira serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 85% | – | 50% 54% |
| 2 | 55% 65% | 6% 50% | 39% 75% |
| 3 | 49% 68% | 8% 67% | 44% 59% |
Set to set −0.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Todd Martin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 70% | 8% 67% | 39% 53% |
| 2 | 67% 63% | 4% 100% | 29% 57% |
| 3 | 52% 59% | 9% 67% | 39% 54% |
Set to set +0.93 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Wayne Ferreira
8.1 points left on the table across 290 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Todd Martin
7.7 points left on the table across 295 shots 2.61 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts